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Course Logisics
•
We need more TAs
•
Or less work for Dae Hoon
Grading is the time
consuming portion…
•
Machine Problem?
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View Full Document Religious wars among Statisticians
(are you a Bayesian?)
•
Frequentist / objectivist / classical statistics / Fisherian
–
World is some true distribution
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Data are a random sampling
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We can come to know the World approximately via data
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Hypothesize; Observe; Evaluate
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Changing the hypothesis taints the data (baseball, lottery)
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Stock scam, wrong hypothesis
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Bayesian
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Evidence can be objective (data) or subjective
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Evidence can testify for / against different distributions
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Will my plane crash? Chance of rain?
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Two meter problem
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Two envelope problem
Probability / Statistics
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Probability Space
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Sample space (Atomic Events)
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Event space
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Probability measure
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Random Variables
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Distributions
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Statistical Inference
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View Full Document Joint Probability Distribution
•
Discrete random variables
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Encodes all information of interest
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Allows arbitrary dependencies
•
Exhaustive and Exclusive Atomic Events
•
Must sum to 1
(one less degrees of freedom than entries)
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Diseases / Symptoms illustration
(useful but overly specific; really evidence and conclusions)
Cloudy
Rainy
Snowy
Yes
0.25
0.15
0.05
0.13
No
0.05
0.1
0.25
0.02
Weather
Have
Fun?
P(Rainy)
= 0.05 + 0.25
= 0.3
P(Rainy 
Sunny)
= P(Rainy
Sunny)
P(
Sunny)
= 0.3 / 0.7
0.43
P(Fun  Sunny)
= P(Fun
Sunny)
P(Sunny)
= 0.25 / 0.3
0.83
Do I prefer Sun or Snow?
0.87
So I prefer snow
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This note was uploaded on 10/13/2011 for the course CS 440 taught by Professor Levinson,s during the Fall '08 term at University of Illinois, Urbana Champaign.
 Fall '08
 Levinson,S

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