Lect18 - Course Logistics Were still working on MP1 Keep...

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Course Logistics We’re still working on MP1… Keep watching for it.
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Inference with BNs J A M E B Five Boolean Random Variables: B a burglary is in progress E an earthquake is in progress A the alarm is sounding J John calls M Mary calls P(B) 0.001 P(E) 0.002 B E P(A|B,E) T T 0.95 T F 0.94 F T 0.29 F F 0.001 A P(J|A) T 0.9 F 0.05 A P(M|A) T 0.7 F 0.01 Are these numbers reasonable? How would they be different if they were Joint entries? We can compute Joint entries.
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Form into Groups Get out a sheet of paper But DON’T put all your names on it It’s just for any needed scratch work Now…
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J A M E B P(B) 0.001 P(E) 0.002 B E P(A|B,E) T T 0.95 T F 0.94 F T 0.29 F F 0.001 A P(J|A) T 0.9 F 0.05 A P(M|A) T 0.7 F 0.01 What’s the probability of a burglary? One in a thousand: 0.001 Are burglaries or earthquakes more likely? Earthquakes are twice as likely What’s the probability of the alarm sounding when there is an earthquake but no burglary? P(A|B=F,E=T) or P(A|
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This note was uploaded on 10/13/2011 for the course CS 440 taught by Professor Levinson,s during the Fall '08 term at University of Illinois, Urbana Champaign.

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Lect18 - Course Logistics Were still working on MP1 Keep...

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