# Lecture18 - CS440/ECE448 Intro to Articial Intelligence...

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Lecture 18: Bayesian Networks continued Prof. Julia Hockenmaier [email protected] http://cs.illinois.edu/fa11/cs440 CS440/ECE448: Intro to ArtiFcial Intelligence

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The Burglary example 2 CS440/ECE448: Intro AI Burglary Earthquake Alarm JohnCalls MaryCalls B=t B=f .001 0.999 E=t E=f .002 0.998 B E A=t A=f t t .95 .05 t f .94 .06 f t .29 .71 f f .999 .001 A M=t M=f t .7 .3 f .01 .99 A J=t J=f t .9 .1 f .05 .95 What is the probability of a burglary if John and Mary call?
Factor graphs Each CPT is one factor (= black box) 3 CS440/ECE448: Intro AI Alarm MaryCalls Earthquake Burglary JohnCalls

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4 CS440/ECE448: Intro AI Intelligence Grade SAT Letter DifFculty SAT=lo SAT=hi I=lo 0.95 0.05 I=hi 0.2 0.8 L=w L=s G=A 0.1 0.9 G=B 0.4 0.6 G=C 0.99 0.01 D=lo D=hi 0.6 0.4 G=A G=B G=C I=lo,D=lo 0.3 0.4 0.3 I=lo,D=hi 0.05 0.25 0.7 I=hi, D=lo 0.9 0.08 0.02 I=hil,D=hi 0.5 0.3 0.2 I=lo I=hi 0.7 0.3 What’s the probability that the student is intelligent if he got a good letter and a high SAT test?
5 CS440/ECE448: Intro AI Intelligence Grade SAT Letter DifFculty SAT=lo SAT=hi I=lo 0.95 0.05 I=hi 0.2 0.8 L=w L=s G=A 0.1 0.9 G=B 0.4 0.6 G=C 0.99 0.01 D=lo D=hi 0.6 0.4 G=A G=B G=C I=lo,D=lo 0.3 0.4 0.3 I=lo,D=hi 0.05 0.25 0.7 I=hi, D=lo 0.9 0.08 0.02 I=hil,D=hi 0.5 0.3 0.2 I=lo I=hi 0.7 0.3 What’s the probability that the student is intelligent if he got a good letter and a high SAT test?

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6 CS440/ECE448: Intro AI Intelligence Grade Letter DifFculty L=w L=s G=A 0.1 0.9 G=B 0.4 0.6 G=C 0.99 0.01 G=A G=B G=C I=lo,D=lo 0.3 0.4 0.3 I=lo,D=hi 0.05 0.25 0.7 I=hi, D=lo 0.9 0.08 0.02 I=hil,D=hi 0.5 0.3 0.2 What’s the probability that the student is intelligent if he got a good letter and a high SAT test?
7 CS440/ECE448: Intro AI Intelligence Grade Letter DifFculty L=w L=s G=A 0.1 0.9 G=B 0.4 0.6 G=C 0.99

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Lecture18 - CS440/ECE448 Intro to Articial Intelligence...

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