Lecture18HO - CS440/ECE448: Intro to Articial Intelligence!...

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Lecture 18: Bayesian Networks continued Prof. Julia Hockenmaier juliahmr@illinois.edu http://cs.illinois.edu/fa11/cs440 CS440/ECE448: Intro to ArtiFcial Intelligence The Burglary example 2 CS440/ECE448: Intro AI Burglary Earthquake Alarm JohnCalls MaryCalls !"# !"% &''( '&))) *"# *"% &''+ '&)), ! * -"# -"% # # &). &'. # % &)/ &'0 % # &+) &1( % % &))) &''( - 2"# 2"% # &1 &3 % &'( &)) - 4"# 4"% # &) &( % &'. &). What is the probability of a burglary if John and Mary call? Factor graphs Each CPT is one factor (= black box) 3 CS440/ECE448: Intro AI Alarm MaryCalls Earthquake Burglary JohnCalls 4 CS440/ECE448: Intro AI Intelligence Grade SAT Letter DifFculty 5-6"78 5-6"9: ;"78 '&). '&'. ;"9: '&+ '&, <"= <"> ?"- '&( '&) ?"! '&/ '&0 ?"@ '&)) '&'( A"78 A"9: '&0 '&/ ?"- ?"! ?"@ ;"78BA"78 '&3 '&/ '&3 ;"78BA"9: '&'. '&+. '&1 ;"9:B A"78 '&) '&', '&'+ ;"9:7BA"9: '&. '&3 '&+ ;"78 ;"9: '&1 '&3 What’s the probability that the student is intelligent if he got a good letter and a high SAT test?
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5 CS440/ECE448: Intro AI Intelligence Grade SAT Letter DifFculty 5-6"78 5-6"9: ;"78 '&). '&'. ;"9: '&+ '&, <"= <"> ?"- '&( '&) ?"! '&/ '&0 ?"@ '&)) '&'( A"78 A"9: '&0 '&/ ?"- ?"! ?"@ ;"78BA"78 '&3 '&/ '&3 ;"78BA"9: '&'. '&+. '&1 ;"9:B A"78 '&) '&', '&'+ ;"9:7BA"9: '&. '&3 '&+ ;"78 ;"9: '&1 '&3 What’s the probability that the student is intelligent if he got a good letter and a high SAT test? 6 CS440/ECE448: Intro AI Intelligence Grade Letter DifFculty <"= <"> ?"- '&( '&) ?"! '&/ '&0 ?"@ '&)) '&'( ?"- ?"! ?"@ ;"78BA"78 '&3 '&/ '&3 ;"78BA"9: '&'. '&+. '&1 ;"9:B A"78 '&) '&', '&'+ ;"9:7BA"9: '&. '&3 '&+ What’s the probability that the student is intelligent if he got a good letter and a high SAT test? 7 CS440/ECE448: Intro AI Intelligence Grade Letter DifFculty <"= <"> ?"- '&( '&) ?"! '&/ '&0 ?"@ '&)) '&'( <"> ;"9:B A"78 '&) C '&) D '&', C '&0 D '&'+ C '&'( ;"9:7BA"9: '&.C'&) D '&3 C '&0 C '&+C'&'( ?"- ?"! ?"@ ;"78BA"78 '&3 '&/ '&3 ;"78BA"9: '&'. '&+. '&1 ;"9:B A"78 '&) '&', '&'+ ;"9:7BA"9: '&. '&3 '&+ 8 CS440/ECE448: Intro AI Intelligence Grade Letter DifFculty A"78 A"9: '&0 '&/ ;"78 ;"9: '&1 '&3 What’s the probability that the student is intelligent if he got a good letter and a high SAT test?
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Lecture18HO - CS440/ECE448: Intro to Articial Intelligence!...

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