Lecture19 - Whats the probability that the next candy is...

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What ʼ s the probability that the next candy is lime? 1 CS440/ECE448: Intro AI What is P(d i+1 | d 1 ,…, d i ) = P(X | D )? We don ʼ t know which bag of candy we got, so we have to assume it could be any one of them: P(X | D ) = i P(X | D , h i )P(h i | D) = i P(X | h i )P(h i | D)
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Lecture 19 Learning graphical models Prof. Julia Hockenmaier juliahmr@illinois.edu http://cs.illinois.edu/fa11/cs440 CS440/ECE448: Intro to ArtiFcial Intelligence
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The Burglary example 3 CS440/ECE448: Intro AI Burglary Earthquake Alarm JohnCalls MaryCalls B=t B=f .001 0.999 E=t E=f .002 0.998 B E A=t A=f t t .95 .05 t f .94 .06 f t .29 .71 f f .999 .001 A M=t M=f t .7 .3 f .01 .99 A J=t J=f t .9 .1 f .05 .95 What is the probability of a burglary if John and Mary call?
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Learning Bayes Nets
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How do we know the parameters of a Bayes Net? We want to estimate the parameters based on data D. Data = instantiations of some or all random variables in the Bayes Net. The data are our evidence.
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Surprise Candy There are two favors oF Surprise Candy: cherry and lime. Both have the same wrapper. There are ±ve diFFerent types oF bags (which all look the same) that Surprise Candy is sold in: h1: 100% cherry h2: 75% cherry + 25% lime h3: 50% cherry + 50% lime h4: 25% cherry + 75% lime h5: 100% lime 6 CS440/ECE448: Intro AI
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Surprise Candy You just bought a bag of Surprise Candy.
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This note was uploaded on 10/13/2011 for the course CS 440 taught by Professor Levinson,s during the Spring '08 term at University of Illinois, Urbana Champaign.

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Lecture19 - Whats the probability that the next candy is...

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