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# Lecture19HO - Whats the probability that the next candy is...

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What ʼ s the probability that the next candy is lime? 1 CS440/ECE448: Intro AI What is P(d i+1 | d 1 ,…, d i ) = P(X | D )? We don ʼ t know which bag of candy we got, so we have to assume it could be any one of them: P(X | D ) = ! i P(X | D , h i )P(h i | D) = ! i P(X | h i )P(h i | D) Lecture 19 Learning graphical models Prof. Julia Hockenmaier [email protected] http://cs.illinois.edu/fa11/cs440 CS440/ECE448: Intro to ArtiFcial Intelligence The Burglary example 3 CS440/ECE448: Intro AI Burglary Earthquake Alarm JohnCalls MaryCalls !"# !"% &''( '&))) *"# *"% &''+ '&)), ! * -"# -"% # # &). &'. # % &)/ &'0 % # &+) &1( % % &))) &''( - 2"# 2"% # &1 &3 % &'( &)) - 4"# 4"% # &) &( % &'. &). What is the probability of a burglary if John and Mary call? Learning Bayes Nets

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How do we know the parameters of a Bayes Net? We want to estimate the parameters based on data D. Data = instantiations of some or all random variables in the Bayes Net. The data are our evidence. Surprise Candy There are two Favors of Surprise Candy: cherry and lime. Both have the same wrapper. There are ±ve different types of bags (which all look the same) that Surprise Candy is sold in: h1: 100% cherry h2: 75% cherry + 25% lime h3: 50% cherry + 50% lime h4: 25% cherry + 75% lime h5: 100% lime 6 CS440/ECE448: Intro AI Surprise Candy You just bought a bag of Surprise Candy.
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Lecture19HO - Whats the probability that the next candy is...

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