Chapter_16

# Chapter_16 - Chapter 16 Probability Q What is the...

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Chapter 16: Probability Q: What is the probability that PSU wins tomorrow at Indiana? 100%, 75%, 50% All arrived by personal opinion. My estimate is 100% based on “relative frequency” In this case PSU has never lost to Indiana since joining Big 10. Which of the following (or both) are true? 1. Law of large numbers: Over a long run period the expected mean or proportion of the population would be experienced. E.g. flip a coin 1000 times; we would expect about 500 heads and tails. 2. Law of small numbers: If a pattern occurs. E.g. 6 tails in a row then we are more likely to see a head on the next flip. Not True! Probability is the chance that something is the case or that an event will occur. Range of probabilities is 0 to 1. Trial is one number of repetitions in an experiment/study. Sample Space is the set all possible outcomes. E.g. coin flip->head, tail; die roll-> 1,2,3,4,5,6 Event is some outcome or subset of Sample Space: E.g. get a tail on a coin flip; E.g. get an even number when die rolled.

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Chapter_16 - Chapter 16 Probability Q What is the...

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