Chapter 16: Probability
Q: What is the probability that PSU wins tomorrow at Indiana?
100%, 75%, 50% All arrived by personal opinion.
My estimate is 100% based on “relative frequency” In this case PSU has never lost to
Indiana since joining Big 10.
Which of the following (or both) are true?
1.
Law of large numbers: Over a long run period the expected mean or
proportion of the population would be experienced. E.g. flip a coin 1000
times; we would expect about 500 heads and tails.
2.
Law of small numbers: If a pattern occurs. E.g. 6 tails in a row then we are
more likely to see a head on the next flip.
Not True!
Probability
is the chance that something is the case or that an event will occur. Range of
probabilities is 0 to 1.
Trial
is one number of repetitions in an experiment/study.
Sample Space
is the set all possible outcomes. E.g. coin flip>head, tail; die roll>
1,2,3,4,5,6
Event is some outcome or subset of Sample Space:
E.g. get a tail on a coin flip; E.g.
get an even number when die rolled.
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 '08
 SEIFRIEDTHOMASJ
 Conditional Probability, Probability, Probability theory, TA

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