chapter_18 - CHAPTER 18 SOLUTIONS AND MINI-PROJECT NOTES...

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CHAPTER 18 SOLUTIONS AND MINI-PROJECT NOTES CHAPTER 18 WHEN INTUITION DIFFERS FROM RELATIVE FREQUENCY EXERCISE SOLUTIONS 18.1 a. Both are equally likely, with probability (0.5)(0.5)(0.5)(0.5). b. People would think the sequence MFFM had higher probability because it has 50% of each sex. c. They are more likely to have two of each sex because there is only one sequence resulting in four girls (FFFF) but many resulting in two of each sex (MFFM, FMFM, etc.). 18.2 See exercise 17 for an example. The main idea is that the probability of subsequent similar events actually does increase or decrease after observing an event. 18.3 There are 50 × 49 pairs of students for which there could be a match and some names are extremely common. 18.4 Any two people who compare a series of facts about themselves are likely to find some in common. Presumably the sisters would have compared notes on lots of factors. The names cited are heard quite frequently, so that adds to the likelihood of having them in common. 18.5 As a rough calculation, there are over 290 million people in the United States, so even if the probability of dreaming of an airplane disaster is only 1 in a million, we would expect 290 people to have done so on any given night. However, if you were one of them and had never had such a dream before, you would probably think something amazing had occurred. The fact is that someone, somewhere will almost surely have such a dream before any crash. 18.6 There are numerous meanings to the word "pattern" and it is easy to find something that fits at least one of them. 18.7 a. They are saying that out of 11 who test positive only 1 is infected. Therefore the probability is 1/11 or about 9%. b.
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chapter_18 - CHAPTER 18 SOLUTIONS AND MINI-PROJECT NOTES...

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