bat on kinh te viet nam - Bi ging 25 S bt n kinh t v m ca...

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Bài gi ng 25: S b t n kinh t ế v ĩ mô c a Vi t Nam L m phát giá tiêu dùng Vi t Nam và khu v c % 10 15 20 25 30 Vietnam Indonesia 0 5 Dec- 04 Mar- 05 Jun- 05 Sep- 05 Dec- 05 Mar- 06 Jun- 06 Sep- 06 Dec- 06 Mar- 07 Jun- 07 Sep- 07 Dec- 07 Mar- 08 Jun- 08 Thailand China Aug- 08
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Thâm h t ngân sách Vi t Nam 5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 -7 -6 -5 2000 2002 2004 2006 Source: IMF T ă ng tr ưở ng cung ti n (M2) 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 0% 5% 10% 2000 2002 2004 2006 Source: IMF
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Dòng v n vào và b t n đ nh v ĩ BÙNG N (BOOM) V n vào M r ng tín d ng T giá th c lên giá, giá c t ă ng,thu nh p chính ph t ă ng Bong bóng tài s n, đầ u c ơ Hi u ng c a c i, n t ă ng Thâm h t th ươ ng m i t ă ng, r t ă ng BONG BÓNG V (BUST) N x u, dòng v n ch y ra, c u gi m, n công t ă ng Các lo i v n vào 16 6 8 10 12 14 USD billions Loans Portfolio FDI 0 2 4 2006 2007 Source: IMF
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Giá đ t khu v c đ ông nam b (tri u VND trên m 2 ) Locality 12/2006 12/2007 Change Ho Chi Minh City Phu My – Van Phat Hung, Dist. 7 11.0 27.0 145% Thai Son, Nha Be District 5.5 16.0 191% Nam Nam Saigon, Binh Chanh Dist. 4.3 13.0 202% Gia Hoa, District 9 5.5 14.0 155% Các t nh lân c n Long Tho – HUD, Nhon Trach, Dong Nai 1.0 2.5 150% Chanh Nghia, Thu Dau Mot, Binh Duong 6.7 26.0 288% T giá VND v i USD và Nhân dân t 17500 2800 16100 16300 16500 16700 16900 17100 17300 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600 15500 15700 15900 1/1/2003 1/4/2003 1/7/2003 1/10/2003 1/1/2004 1/4/2004 1/7/2004 1/10/2004 1/1/2005 1/4/2005 1/7/2005 1/10/2005 1/1/2006 1/4/2006 1/7/2006 1/10/2006 1/1/2007 1/4/2007 1/7/2007 1/10/2007 1/1/2008 1/4/2008 1/7/2008 1/10/2008 1000 1200
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T giá h i đ oái th c (1994=100) Source: HSBC V n
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