HW_5-Forecasting-solution

HW_5-Forecasting-solution - #4 (Total is 3.5 points) a....

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#4 (Total is 3.5 points) a. (1.5 points, each method 0.5 point) Month Actual Sales naïve two-period exponential January 45 February 30 March 40 30 37.5 42 30 April 50 40 35 41.6 32 May 55 50 45 43.28 35.6 June 47 55 52.5 45.624 39.48 July 47 51 45.8992 40.984 b. (1.5 points, each MAD calcaution is 0.5 point) Month Actual Sales naïve Absolute value January 45 February 30 March 40 30 10 April 50 40 10 May 55 50 5 June 47 55 8 MAD= 8.25 Month Actual Sales two-period Absolute value January 45 February 30 March 40 37.5 2.5 April 50 35 15 May 55 45 10 June 47 52.5 5.5 MAD= 8.25 Month Actual Sales exponential Absolute value January 45 February 30 March 40 42 2 30 10 April 50 41.6 8.4 32 18 May 55 43.28 11.72 35.6 19.4 June 47 45.624 1.376 39.48 7.52 MAD= 5.874 13.73 c. choose the exponential model, because its MAD is the smallest (5.87). The forcasting value is 45.9 (0.5 point) (choose either naïve model or two period moving. The forcasting value is either 47, or 51 (0.5 point))
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Additional Problem 2 (Total 3 points) Year(x) Sales(y) x*x x*y 36 2300 1296 82800 30 2000 900 60000 12 800 144 9600 sum= 5100 2340 152400 n= 3 x bar= 26 y bar= 1700 (1 point)
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This note was uploaded on 10/17/2011 for the course MNGT 368 taught by Professor Curthurds during the Spring '08 term at Nicholls State.

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HW_5-Forecasting-solution - #4 (Total is 3.5 points) a....

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