hw6 - PS 233 Intermediate Statistical Analysis Homework 6:...

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PS 233 – Intermediate Statistical Analysis Homework 6: Logit and Probit Research Note (Due 4/15/2002) Deterrence Outcomes on a Probability Curve When do great-power disputes escalate to war? When do defenders are able to thwart challengers’ attempts at revising the status quo? Table 1 reports the findings of a statistical model that addresses these questions. The model analyzes 94 instances of great-power deterrence encounters from 1816 to 1984. The dependent variable measures whether the challenger escalated the dispute (deterrence failure). Positive signs on the coefficients, therefore, mean that an increase in the variable under consideration is associated with an increase in the probability of deterrence failure. The goal of this assignment is to prepare a research report that explains the empirical findings presented in Table 1. The model in Table 1 is estimated using Probit. You may decide to replicate the findings using Logit, and report your analysis using the Logit estimates. In particular, please: 1) Prepare a graph that plots the probability of deterrence failure as the balance of military power varies from its minimum to its maximum values. Plot the probability curve twice: for a defender that possesses second-strike nuclear capability and for a non-nuclear defender. Set the remaining variables at some theoretically or empirically meaningful values. ( Hint : check what Huth, Gelpi, and Bennett (1993) did in Table 2, page 618); 2) Prepare a table that compares the substantive effects of the dummy variables included in the model; 3) Prepare a table that compares the probabilities of deterrence failure under these four
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hw6 - PS 233 Intermediate Statistical Analysis Homework 6:...

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