Chapter 3 Forecasting

Chapter 3 Forecasting - Exponential Smoothing (Example 3)...

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Exponential Smoothing (Example 3) Alpha = Smoothing constant Period (t) Actual Demand Forecast Error 0.2 1 42 2 40 42.00 -2.00 3 43 41.60 1.40 4 40 41.88 -1.88 5 41 41.50 -0.50 6 39 41.40 -2.40 7 46 40.92 5.08 8 44 41.94 2.06 9 45 42.35 2.65 10 38 42.88 -4.88 11 40 41.90 -1.90 12 41.52 MAD (0.4) 2.443 MAD (0.2) 2.4761 MAD (0.7) 2.3098 MAD (0.1) 2.4479 Linear Trend (Example 4) Week Unit Sales 1 700 2 724 3 720 4 728 5 740 6 742 7 758 8 750 9 770 10 775 Linear Trend Calculations Linear Trend Calculations (Midterm Exam) t y ty n t y ty n 1 700 700 1 10 1 325 325 1 4 2 724 1448 4 2 335 670 4 3 720 2160 9 3 172 516 9 4 728 2912 16 4 645 2580 16 5 740 3700 25 6 742 4452 36 7 758 5306 49 8 750 6000 64 9 770 6930 81 10 775 7750 100 Σ 55 7407 41358 385 Σ 10 1477 4091 30 b 7.51 b 79.70 2401.6 a 699.4 a 170 Linear Regression (Example 8) Sales, x Profits, y 7 0.15 2 0.1 6 0.13 4 0.15 14 0.25 15 0.27 16 0.24 12 0.2 14 0.27 20 0.44 15 0.34 7 0.17 Example 8 Linear Regression Calculations Linear Regression Calculations (Midterm Exam)
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This note was uploaded on 10/19/2011 for the course DS 412 taught by Professor Eng during the Fall '07 term at S.F. State.

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Chapter 3 Forecasting - Exponential Smoothing (Example 3)...

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