lec9 - HCI Aero ’06 ext Generation Air Transportation...

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Unformatted text preview: HCI Aero ’06 ext Generation Air Transportation System Initiative: Methods for the Analysis of Future Operational Concepts Dr. Sherry Borener Director, Evaluations & Analysis Division, Joint Planning and Development Office 1 Evaluation and Analysis Division Outline for Today • How has JPDO (EAD) gone about evaluating the potential impact of the NGATS plan – and the benefits of transformation? • What are the issues for automation design and implementation that must be addressed in the future? 2 Evaluation and Analysis Division It It ’ ’ s More Than Just the Movement s More Than Just the Movement of People and Goods of People and Goods 9 9 Big Return on Investment Big Return on Investment 9 9 Contributes over $1.3 Trillion/Year in U.S. Contributes over $1.3 Trillion/Year in U.S. Output Output 9 9 Supports 12+ Million American Jobs Supports 12+ Million American Jobs 9 9 Travel and Tourism an Integral Part of This Travel and Tourism an Integral Part of This 9 9 Exports Reduce Balance of Trade Deficit Exports Reduce Balance of Trade Deficit 3 Evaluation and Analysis Division One Billion+ Passengers in U.S. Skies by 2015 2x to 3x Demand by 2025 New Entrants Such as Very Light Jets Global Market Opportunities for U.S. Companies U.S. Travel & Tourism to Grow 4.2% Annually All Signs Point to Continued All Signs Point to Continued Strong Growth Strong Growth 4 Evaluation and Analysis Division There Are Problems There Are Problems • Aging, Inefficient, Unreliable and Costly Air Transportation Infrastructure • Reaching the Limits of Capacity • Failure to Act Will Cost $40 Billion Annually • Challenges to American Exports/Balance of Trade • Unsustainable Security + National Defense Costs 5 Evaluation and Analysis Division NextGen Tangible Benefits NextGen Tangible Benefits • Meets Greater Demand/Reduces Delays • Increas es Secur ity • Is Cheaper to Operate and Maintain • Makes Best Use of the Taxpayer’s Dollar • Fuels Economic Growth • Brings Aviation’s Benefits to Main St. USA • Bolsters U.S. Global Competitiveness 6 Evaluation and Analysis Division Transformation Started Yesterday Transformation Started Yesterday • Real World Improvements Being Delivered Now • Transformational Building Blocks • Network Enabled Operations: The Big Picture • Revolutionizing Air Navigation and Surveillance 7 Evaluation and Analysis Division Demand Shortfall: The Case for the Investment 8 Evaluation and Analysis Division Passengers 1.8-2.4X Potential Future Demand on the NAS 2004 2025 1X ~3X Shift in passengers per flight (e.g., A380, reverse RJ trend, higher load factor) 20?? ~2X ote: Not to scale T e r m i n a l A r e a F o r e c a s t ( T A F ) G r o w t h P r o j e c t i o n 2014 and later Baseline analysis will use OEP & FACT Capacities T A F G r o w t h R a t i o s , H i g h e r R a t e T A F G r o w t h R a t i o s , L o w e r R a t e 2014 Extreme Business Shift • 2% shift to micro jets Increase of over 10 passengers per flight...
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This note was uploaded on 10/20/2011 for the course AERO 16.72 taught by Professor Hansman during the Fall '06 term at MIT.

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lec9 - HCI Aero ’06 ext Generation Air Transportation...

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