monthlyupdate_sept10nc - Monthly Update of Key Travel &...

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Unformatted text preview: Monthly Update of Key Travel & Tourism Indicators 15 September 2010 Global macroeconomic outlook (1) • Although global activity has picked up strongly since last year, various headwinds suggest that growth may slow in the second half of this year. • The sovereign debt crisis has sparked a drive to fiscal austerity which is expected to weigh on activity, particularly in the eurozone. • Unemployment in advanced economies is expected to remain at elevated levels, hampering consumers’ purchasing power. Global macroeconomic outlook (2) • Households, particularly among Anglo-Saxon nations, are still being weighed down by high levels of personal debt. • The picture in emerging markets is more encouraging, with more solid fundamentals pointing to the continued strong growth of domestic demand, even if external demand begins to wane. • These are some of the global macroeconomic issues which are likely to drive performance in the short term. Fiscal retrenchment intensifying in Europe-3-2-1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Germany Finland Austria Netherlands France Italy Belgium Portugal Spain Ireland Greece 2010 2011 Fiscal plans for 2010 and 2011 Change in cyclically adjusted budget balance % GDP Source : IMF/Oxford Economics Unemployment set to restrain spending growth in advanced economies… 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Unemployment rates in mature economies % Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics Germany France US Japan UK Forecast …especially as households remain heavily in debt 50 100 150 200 250 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 Household debt % of income Source : Oxford Economics US UK Eurozone Germany Ireland Spain So emerging markets likely to continue to outperform developed economies Outlook for Travel & Tourism (1) • The growth in airline passenger traffic slowed to 9.2% on the year in The growth in airline passenger traffic slowed to 9....
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This note was uploaded on 10/20/2011 for the course TRAVEL & T 1140 taught by Professor Joannegiampa during the Spring '11 term at College of DuPage.

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monthlyupdate_sept10nc - Monthly Update of Key Travel &...

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