12 - Example of a correspondence (Outcome) study- Coherence...

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Unformatted text preview: Example of a correspondence (Outcome) study- Coherence degree to which the decision is accurate resembles the real world- weather forecaster who gives good predictions that match the real world Humans exhibit over-confidence in their beliefs- Correspondence study how beliefs and confidence are corresponded with reality- You often dont know as much as you think you know Multi attribute decisions (often riskless decisions)- Multi-attribute utility analysis- Think of a decision in which you want some help- You dont want to double-count- You can give values to each attribute, but you need to determine which attribute is most important to you- So determine which salary is best for you (based on a scale of 1-10), but then you need to determine how important salary actually is to you (based on a scale of 0- 1)- Differences between weights (1-10 & 0-1) and utilities what you get after you do the math- If utility decisions are so close (e.g 8.40 and 8.45 from slides) maybe add more If utility decisions are so close (e....
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This note was uploaded on 10/23/2011 for the course PPE 253 taught by Professor Mellers during the Fall '11 term at UPenn.

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12 - Example of a correspondence (Outcome) study- Coherence...

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