21 - Second page N.5.4.65.7.35 p(m)p(y|m = p(m y Dont...

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N .5 .4 .65 .7 .35 p(m)p(y|m) = p(m + y) Don’t calculate for the first part, but do so for the second part Probability of male, for someone who says yes (the opposite way around) We have a stereotype for someone who is male saying yes or no - but not so much if this is reversed – trust Bayes’s theorem p(Y|M) = [p(Y|M)p(M)] / [p(Y|M)p(M) + p(Y|F)p(F)] = p(Y|M)p(M) / p(Y) probability of male given yes = 1/3 prob of male = .45 prob of female = .55 probability of male saying yes = .4 probability of female saying yes = .65 .45 x .4 = .18 .55 x .65 = .36 p(M|Y) = .18 / (.18 + .36) = [p(Y|M)p(M)] / [p(Y|M)p(M) + p(Y|F)p(F)] Normative theories - Popper (rational reconstruction) – conjecture and refutation - Carl Popper – feelings of inferiority - Adler’s theory (not falsifiable) vs. Einstein’s theory (easily falsifiable, but no one could do it) - The idea that god did it is not falsifiable – from a scientific standpoint, this is a meaningless claim - Religious say that, your theory of evolution isn’t falsifiable either! Platt – play 20 questions with nature – Louie Pasteur – come up with large hypothesis

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This note was uploaded on 10/23/2011 for the course PPE 253 taught by Professor Mellers during the Fall '11 term at UPenn.

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21 - Second page N.5.4.65.7.35 p(m)p(y|m = p(m y Dont...

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