28 - Betty is to the left of Carol So, Alice is the left of...

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Experienced, decision, predicted Experienced utility – the real thing (the goodness of experience) - We miss-predict our own utility Decision utility – utilities we infer from watching other people make decisions - Utilities express themselves in choices Predicted utility – rate how good it would be for one choice or another - asking to decide between two choices and using the choice as an indicator what the utility judgment is - e.g. How do we ration healthcare? Do the most good we can for the money we spend (cost effectiveness ratio) Coherence – normative measure of probability – internal consistency - judgments should be a ratio of P(y) / P(m) = p(Y|M) / p(M|Y) = p(Y)p(m|Y) = p(m)p(Y|M) = p(y+M) = p(m+Y) Correspondence – how things agree with the real (in this case, what the class actually said) Logic: Normative model Alice is to the left of Betty
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Unformatted text preview: Betty is to the left of Carol So, Alice is the left of Coral An X can be a Y A Y can be a Z Therefore an X can be a Z Are these valid Normative is the way we define the right answer – how we judge how good people are-What we mean by rationality-The Gold standard Descriptive – what we actually do – psychology-e.g. people are systematically biased (hypothesis theory)-prescriptive model – make people think about different hypothesis-Coherence – internal consistency What are people doing wrong? What is logic (the normative model)? All As are Cs Some As are Cs Some Cs are not As Some As are Cs Some As are not Cs Actively open minded thinking – thinking about reasons why you can be wrong For logic, make setups for all probability equations Multi-card task – ask about A1 and A3...
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This note was uploaded on 10/23/2011 for the course PPE 253 taught by Professor Mellers during the Fall '11 term at UPenn.

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28 - Betty is to the left of Carol So, Alice is the left of...

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