12 - Irrational Belief Persistence errors in incorporating...

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Irrational Belief Persistence – errors in incorporating new judgments into decisions they have already made How can beliefs be rational or irrational? - People often do not adjust our beliefs in normatively correct ways in response to new information Search and Inference Framework: Where do we misuse information? Any part of belief persistence can affect search or inference - Rational framework = normative model Entrepeneur keeps pumping money into his business thinking that he can turn his luck around and make a difference out of it - Search o Order effects o Selective Exposure - Inference: o Biased assimilation o Belief overkill Normative rules for using new information - the order principle – the order in which you perceive information should matter to affect your belief (if the order is irrelevant, it shouldn’t matter) o Primacy effects (earlier information is given more weight in beliefs) Two urns – drawing from the first urn for the first 30 times, drawing from the second urn for the next 30 times, but after 60 times, participants thought that draws were from the first urn Special case of primacy effects - “Total discrediting” o participants given information, then told it was completely false o Yet information still affects subsequent beliefs (two groups of participants told that firefighters were better if risk averse, or risk prone respectively) o BUT, also sometimes occurs when participants are warned
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This note was uploaded on 10/23/2011 for the course PPE 253 taught by Professor Mellers during the Fall '11 term at UPenn.

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12 - Irrational Belief Persistence errors in incorporating...

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