1. What is the difference between Popper's recommendations and
Platt's? (Two sentences should suffice.) (5 points)
Popper believes that the best theories are bold conjectures ones that could be falsifiable.
Platt believes that a strong inference is important. Platt would say that one should
essentially play “20 questions” with the world, starting off with basic questions and
narrowing down our tests. Platt disagrees with Popper in that bold (unlikely) conjectures
are not necessarily the best.
2. When should the outcome of the decision affect your evaluation of
the decision itself? When should the outcome not affect your
Whether a decision is good or bad depends on how you made it, now what happened. The
focus is on whether a decision is good or bad depends on how you made it, not what
happened. When I make a decision in a certain moment, I have information X,Y,Z at my
disposal. After the outcome, I may not have A,B,C as well as X,Y,Z at my disposal. I will
use A,B,C,X,Y,Z when making future decisions, but the evaluation of the decision in the
original should not affect my original decision in hindsight.
One should evaluate a decision with coherence and correspondence with which
the decision was made, not the outcome. The outcome should only effect your decision in
the future, using your
logic and reason.
Nevertheless, as a creative exercise in psychology, bad outcomes tend to lead to
lead to better decision making in the future. If there is a bad outcome, you will reflect and
ask, what did I do wrong in my normative decision process and how can I alter this so
that it does not happen in the future? Good outcomes rarely induce this kind of reflection.
Therefore, a good outcome rarely affects your initial evaluation. However, a good or bad
outcome should not affect your evaluation of the decision itself, but it should in the
future. Bad decisions can lead to good decisions in the future. At the end of the day.
Decisions are what we control, outcomes are what happened.
3. Describe a heuristic that explains a bias or error, and a useful