2011 - 4/26/2011 Biases in Everyday Judgment-...

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4/26/2011 Biases in Everyday Judgment- Overconfidence I) Confidence and Calibration A) To document- Psychologists have done experiments to see when people are more confident A.1) You are usually more confident than right, this is found by comparing accuracy rates to confidence rates (A.1.a) Accuracy usually doesn’t match confident (A.1.b) Ethnic stereotypes are not true in this case- Asians are more overconfident than British B) Social Predictions B.1) Dunning, Griffin, Milojkovic, and Ross 1990) (B.1.a) Would the target person… B.1.a.i Prefer to subscribe to playboy or the new york review of books B.1.a.iiDescribe his/her notes as neat or messy B.1.a.iii Say s/he would pocket or turn in $5 found on the ground (B.1.b) Mean confidence = 75.7% (B.1.c) Mean Accuracy 60.8% (B.1.d) When 100% confident, accuracy=78.5% C) Predictions about the self C.1) Overall confidence = 82.3% C.2) Overall accuracy = 68.2% C.3) When 100% confident, accuracy, 77.4% C.4) People are most overconfident when they are most confident D) Calibration among Political/Foreign Affairs Forecasters D.1) Tetlock (2005) (D.1.a) 285 expert political forcasters D.1.a.i 41% area studies D.1.a.ii24% international relations D.1.a.iii 12% economics D.1.a.iv 11% national security D.1.a.v9% journalism D.1.a.vi 2% diplomacy D.1.a.vii 1% international law (D.1.b) 27,45 trichotomous forecasts (less or more or same) D.1.b.i choose which ones are most likely and rate confidence D.1.b.ii experts do better than undergraduates, but not much D.2) Calibration of Expert “Foxes” and Hedgehogs” (D.2.a) Hegdehogs (do one thing well) are more overconfident than foxes
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2011 - 4/26/2011 Biases in Everyday Judgment-...

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