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Stat982(Chap18)Q-set

Stat982(Chap18)Q-set - CHAPTER EIGHTEEN FORECASTING...

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CHAPTER EIGHTEEN FORECASTING MULTIPLE CHOICE QUESTIONS In the following multiple choice questions, circle the correct answer. 1. The time series component which reflects a regular, multi-year pattern of being above and below the trend line is a. a trend b. seasonal c. cyclical d. irregular 2. The time series component that reflects variability during a single year is called 3. The time series component that reflects variability due to natural disasters is called 4. The time series component that reflects gradual variability over a long time period is called 5. The trend component is easy to identify by using a. moving averages b. exponential smoothing c. regression analysis d. the Delphi approach 6. The forecasting method that is appropriate when the time series has no significant trend, cyclical, or seasonal effect is 1

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2 Chapter Eighteen 7. If data for a time series analysis is collected on an annual basis only, which component may be ignored? 8. For the following time series, you are given the moving average forecast. Time Period Time Series Value Moving Average Forecast 1 23 2 17 3 17 4 26 19 5 11 20 6 23 18 7 17 20 The mean squared error equals 9. If the estimate of the trend component is 158.2, the estimate of the seasonal component is 94%, the estimate of the cyclical component is 105%, and the estimate of the irregular component is 98%, then the multiplicative model will produce a forecast of a. 1.53 b. 1.53% c. 153.02 d. 153,020,532 10. Below you are given the first four values of a time series. Time Period Time Series Value 1 18 2 20 3 25 4 17 Using a 4-period moving average, the forecasted value for period 5 is
Forecasting 3 11. Below you are given the first two values of a time series. You are also given the first two values of the exponential smoothing forecast. Exponential Smoothing Time Period (t) Time Series Value (Y t ) Forecast (F t ) 1 18 18 2 22 18 If the smoothing constant equals .3, then the exponential smoothing forecast for time period three is 12. The following linear trend expression was estimated using a time series with 17 time periods. T t = 129.2 + 3.8t The trend projection for time period 18 is Exhibit 18-1 Below you are given the first five values of a quarterly time series. The multiplicative model is appropriate and a four-quarter moving average will be used. Year Quarter Time Series Value Y t 1 1 36 2 24 3 16 4 20 2 1 44

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