l1 - Math 127B, Notes for lecture 1 Mrinal Raghupathi...

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Unformatted text preview: Math 127B, Notes for lecture 1 Mrinal Raghupathi Wednesday, January 12th, 2011 1 Box model We will begin by reviewing the box model, the law of averages, expected value and standard error. To motivate the topics we will cover this semester let us begin with a simple example. Example 1 . Suppose that we want to figure out the percentage of voters in Tennessee who are will vote for the democratic candidate in the next presidential election. The simplest approach to this would be to contact every eligible voter and ask them which they plan to vote. This is usually called a census. This approach has the advantage that we will have an accurate prediction of the election result. However, a census is an expensive, and time-consuming process. The alternative to a census is a survey of a random sample of the population. For the moment we will not worry about how a random sample is created. For the sake of argument let us assume that there are 4 million eligible voters in Tennessee....
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l1 - Math 127B, Notes for lecture 1 Mrinal Raghupathi...

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