19_WarmingSP2008

19_WarmingSP2008 - 1/9/2008 Lecture 19: It's Getting...

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1/9/2008 1 Lecture 19: It’s Getting Warmer, BUT Why? Some Discussion on the Controversies about Global Warming Geography 1000 Spring 2008 Some Terms for Study and Excellence in Tests • Global Climate Change—Warming Processes (p. 515- 534); Cooling Processes (p.547) • El Nino, La Nina (p. 514) • IPC 2007 Assessment (8 main points—p. 519-525) • Greenhouse gases (types) p.520-521 • Arctic Climate Impact Assessment Five ―bullets‖ –main points (p. 528-529) • Thermohaline Circulation and Ocean Conveyor (p. 515) • Depletion of Ozone Layer (p. 534-539) • Svante Arrhenius (p. 519) • Troposphere, Tropopause, Stratosphere, Mesophere p. 510
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1/9/2008 2 ―Like what’s with like all these storms, man? Science is JUST not there yet—we are learning quickly, but need time-series data to really start to build successful models! The Radiation Balance ? Sun Earth’s Temperature Solar Energy Radiative Cooling
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1/9/2008 3 Sun Earth’s Temperature Solar Energy Radiative Cooling Greenhouse Effect Sun Earth’s Atmospheric Gases Nitrogen (N 2 ) Oxygen (O 2 ) Water (H 2 O) Carbon Dioxide (CO 2 ) 99% Methane (CH 4 ) 1% Non- Green house Gases Green house Gases
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1/9/2008 4 Worldwide Carbon Emissions Carbon (10 9 metric tons) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year Liquid fuel Total Gas fuel Solid fuel Annual Carbon Emissions Annual carbon emissions Atmospheric CO 2 Atmospheric CO 2 average 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 0 4 6 8 2 Year US GHG Emissions in 2005 (million metric tons of CO 2 -equivalent) HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 160.1 (2.2%) Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide 5,901.1 (82.6%) Nitrous Oxide 366.6 (5.1%) Methane 611.9 (8.6%) Other Carbon Dioxide 104.9 (1.5%) Source: Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States 2005 . DOE/EIA-0573(2005), Washington, DC, November 2006
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1/9/2008 5 Policy to Reduce GHGs Could Significantly Change Energy Outlook • EIA Reference Case projections are generally based on existing laws and policies. • In several recent reports, EIA has examined the energy implications of alternative cap and trade programs for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Further analyses are in progress. • The analyses suggest that reductions outside the energy sector are an important first step, but that reductions from energy necessarily play an increasing role as the emissions target is tightened. • Within energy, the electricity sector, particularly projected coal use, is most significantly affected. Future Carbon Dioxide Levels • Increasing CO 2 emissions, especially in China and developing countries • Likely to double within 150 years: – Increased coal usage – Increased natural gas usage – Decreased petroleum usage (increased cost and decreasing supply) -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year D Mean Temperature (°C) Recorded Worldwide Temperatures Flat Decreasing
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1/9/2008 6 -3 -2.5 -1.5 -1 -.5 -.1 .1 .5 1 1.5 2.5 3.4 2005 Temperature Changes Compared to 1951-1980
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19_WarmingSP2008 - 1/9/2008 Lecture 19: It's Getting...

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