problem set 1

# problem set 1 - Michael Schoenfeld Problem 1 a 3 month...

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Michael Schoenfeld Problem 1 a.) 3 month moving average Month Sales Forecast Error Absolute Error Error Squared MAD MSE 1.00 447.00 28.48 1198.63 2.00 466.00 3.00 469.00 4.00 492.00 460.67 31.33 31.33 981.78 5.00 485.00 475.67 9.33 9.33 87.11 6.00 492.00 482.00 10.00 10.00 100.00 7.00 512.00 489.67 22.33 22.33 498.78 8.00 553.00 496.33 56.67 56.67 3211.11 9.00 588.00 519.00 69.00 69.00 4761.00 10.00 574.00 551.00 23.00 23.00 529.00 11.00 592.00 571.67 20.33 20.33 413.44 12.00 599.00 584.67 14.33 14.33 205.44 13.00 588.33 b.) 3 month weighted average Month Sales Forecast Error Abs Error Error Squared MAD MSE 1.00 447.00 21.46 774.80 2.00 466.00 3.00 469.00 4.00 492.00 465.90 26.10 26.10 681.21 5.00 485.00 482.50 2.50 2.50 6.25 6.00 492.00 485.50 6.50 6.50 42.25 7.00 512.00 489.90 22.10 22.10 488.41 8.00 553.00 503.30 49.70 49.70 2470.09 9.00 588.00 534.60 53.40 53.40 2851.56 10.00 574.00 569.90 4.10 4.10 16.81 11.00 592.00 576.10 15.90 15.90 252.81 12.00 599.00 586.20 12.80 12.80 163.84 13 594.4 The 3 month weighted average is much more accurate than the moving average. I would recommend that Honda uses the weighted average.

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Problem 2: a.) Exponential Smoothing Month Sales Alpha Value .25 Alpha Value .5 Alpha Value .75 1.00 447.00 447 447 447 2.00 466.00 447.00 447.00 447.00 3.00 469.00 451.75 456.50 461.25 4.00 492.00 456.06 462.75 467.06 5.00 485.00 465.05 477.38 485.77 6.00 492.00 470.04 481.19 485.19
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## This document was uploaded on 11/04/2011 for the course BUSI 403 at UNC.

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problem set 1 - Michael Schoenfeld Problem 1 a 3 month...

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