15B - 3. Year 1: Average/qr. = 860 Year 2: Average/qr. =...

Info iconThis preview shows pages 1–2. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
B DS 412:15 Solutions to Midterm Exam 1 Spring ‘10 1.a. Y-intercept a = 98.067 Slope b = -4.485 a represents the # of visitors in 1999 b represents the decrease in # of visitors per year Forecast of # of visitors in 2010: 98.067 – (4.485 x 11) = 48.732 (thousands) b. Y-intercept a = 154.15 Slope b = -3.451 a represents the # of visitors if ticket price is zero b represents the decrease in # of visitors if average ticket price increases by $1 Forecast of # of visitors is if average ticket price is $30: 154.15 - (3.451 x 30) = 50.62 (thousands) c. Both models are very good, with high values of R-squared. 2. Simple Exp. Smoothing: F(Apr) = (0.2 x 271) + (0.8 x 272.8) = 272.44 F(May) = (0.2 x 280) + (0.8 x 272.44) = 273.95 F(June) = (0.2 x 269) + (0.8 x 273.95) = 272.96 Month Sales Forecasts Errors Mov. Avg. Sim. Exp. Sm. Mov. Avg. Sim. Exp. Sm. Jan 276 -- 276 -- -- Feb 260 -- 276 -- -- Mar 271 -- 272.8 -- -- Apr 280 269 272.44 11 7.56 May 269 270.33 273.95 -1.33 -4.95 Jun 278 273.33 272.96 4.67 5.04 MAD (Mov Avg) = (11+1.33+4.67)/3 = 5.67; MAD (Sim Exp Smooth) = (7.56+4.95+5.04)/3 = 5.85
Background image of page 1

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
Background image of page 2
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

Unformatted text preview: 3. Year 1: Average/qr. = 860 Year 2: Average/qr. = 840 Year Quarter Sales Seasonal Factors Mean Seasonal Factors 1 1 799.8 0.93 0.9 2 1100.8 1.28 1.3 3 920.2 1.07 1.1 4 619.2 0.72 0.7 2 1 730.8 0.87 2 1108.8 1.32 3 949.2 1.13 4 571.2 0.68 Year 3: Trend = 860 840 = -20; Average/qr. = 840 - 20 = 820 Forecasts, Yr. 3: Quarter 1: 820 x 0.9 = 738 Quarter 2: 820 x 1.3 = 1066 Quarter 3: 820 x 1.1 = 902 Quarter 4: 820 x 0.7 = 574 4.a. Decision Table: Alternatives (Overbookings) States of Nature (No Shows) 1 2 80 160 1 125 80 2 250 125 Prob. 0.35 0.4 0.25 b. EV(0) = (0.35 x 0) + (0.4 x 80) + (0.25 x 160) = 72 EV(1) = (0.35 x 125) + (0.4 x 0) + (0.25 x 80) = 63.75 EV(2) = (0.35 x 250) + (0.4 x 125) + (0.25 x 0) = 137.5 Overbook 1 seat; EV = $63.75 5a. b. EV(4) = (1.6x0.7) + (-0.1x0.3) = 1.09M EV(5) = (0.8x0.7) + (-0.9x0.3) = 0.29M EV(2) = (1.09x0.4) + (0x0.6) = 0.436M EV(3) = (0.29x0.75) + (0x0.25) = 0.2175 EV(1) = 0.436M; Bid 1.6M...
View Full Document

This note was uploaded on 11/04/2011 for the course DS 412 taught by Professor Eng during the Fall '07 term at S.F. State.

Page1 / 2

15B - 3. Year 1: Average/qr. = 860 Year 2: Average/qr. =...

This preview shows document pages 1 - 2. Sign up to view the full document.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Ask a homework question - tutors are online