This preview shows pages 1–2. Sign up to view the full content.
This preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.
View Full Document
Unformatted text preview: 3. Year 1: Average/qr. = 860 Year 2: Average/qr. = 840 Year Quarter Sales Seasonal Factors Mean Seasonal Factors 1 1 799.8 0.93 0.9 2 1100.8 1.28 1.3 3 920.2 1.07 1.1 4 619.2 0.72 0.7 2 1 730.8 0.87 2 1108.8 1.32 3 949.2 1.13 4 571.2 0.68 Year 3: Trend = 860 840 = 20; Average/qr. = 840  20 = 820 Forecasts, Yr. 3: Quarter 1: 820 x 0.9 = 738 Quarter 2: 820 x 1.3 = 1066 Quarter 3: 820 x 1.1 = 902 Quarter 4: 820 x 0.7 = 574 4.a. Decision Table: Alternatives (Overbookings) States of Nature (No Shows) 1 2 80 160 1 125 80 2 250 125 Prob. 0.35 0.4 0.25 b. EV(0) = (0.35 x 0) + (0.4 x 80) + (0.25 x 160) = 72 EV(1) = (0.35 x 125) + (0.4 x 0) + (0.25 x 80) = 63.75 EV(2) = (0.35 x 250) + (0.4 x 125) + (0.25 x 0) = 137.5 Overbook 1 seat; EV = $63.75 5a. b. EV(4) = (1.6x0.7) + (0.1x0.3) = 1.09M EV(5) = (0.8x0.7) + (0.9x0.3) = 0.29M EV(2) = (1.09x0.4) + (0x0.6) = 0.436M EV(3) = (0.29x0.75) + (0x0.25) = 0.2175 EV(1) = 0.436M; Bid 1.6M...
View
Full
Document
This note was uploaded on 11/04/2011 for the course DS 412 taught by Professor Eng during the Fall '07 term at S.F. State.
 Fall '07
 Eng

Click to edit the document details