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Unformatted text preview: 3. Year 1: Average/qr. = 240 Year 2: Average/qr. = 220 Year Quarter Sales Seasonal Factors Mean Seasonal Factors 1 1 182.4 0.76 0.8 2 218.4 0.91 0.9 3 292.8 1.22 1.2 4 266.4 1.11 1.1 2 1 184.8 0.84 2 195.8 0.89 3 259.6 1.18 4 239.8 1.09 Year 3: Trend = 220 240 = 20; Average/qr. = 220  20 = 200 Forecasts, Yr. 3: Quarter 1: 200 x 0.8 = 160 Quarter 2: 200 x 0.9 = 180 Quarter 3: 200 x 1.2 = 240 Quarter 4: 200 x 1.1 = 220 4.a. Decision Table: Alternatives (Overbookings) States of Nature (No Shows) 1 2 80 160 1 125 80 2 250 125 Prob. 0.2 0.35 0.45 b. EV(0) = (0.2 x 0) + (0.35 x 80) + (0.45 x 160) = 100 EV(1) = (0.2 x 125) + (0.35 x 0) + (0.45 x 80) = 61 EV(2) = (0.2 x 250) + (0.35 x 125) + (0.45 x 0) = 93.75 Overbook 1 seat; EV = $61 5a. b. EV(4) = (1.6x0.7) + (0.1x0.3) = 1.09M EV(5) = (0.8x0.7) + (0.9x0.3) = 0.29M EV(2) = (1.09x0.35) + (0x0.65) = 0.3815M EV(3) = (0.29x0.7) + (0x0.3) = 0.203 EV(1) = 0.3815M; Bid 1.6M...
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 Fall '07
 Eng

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