# 15W - 3 Year 1 Average/qr = 240 Year 2 Average/qr = 220...

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W DS 412:15 Solutions to Midterm Exam 1 Spring ‘10 1.a. Y-intercept a = 98.067 Slope b = -4.485 a represents the # of visitors in 1999 b represents the decrease in # of visitors per year Forecast of # of visitors in 2010: 98.067 – (4.485 x 11) = 48.732 (thousands) b. Y-intercept a = 154.15 Slope b = -3.451 a represents the # of visitors if ticket price is zero b represents the decrease in # of visitors if average ticket price increases by \$1 Forecast of # of visitors is if average ticket price is \$30: 154.15 - (3.451 x 30) = 50.62 (thousands) c. Both models are very good, with high values of R-squared. 2. Simple Exp. Smoothing: F(Apr) = (0.1 x 271) + (0.9 x 274.4) = 274.06 F(May) = (0.1 x 280) + (0.9 x 274.06) = 274.65 F(June) = (0.1 x 269) + (0.9 x 274.65) = 274.09 Month Sales Forecasts Errors Mov. Avg. Sim. Exp. Sm. Mov. Avg. Sim. Exp. Sm. Jan 276 -- 276 -- -- Feb 260 -- 276 -- -- Mar 271 -- 274.4 -- -- Apr 280 269 274.06 11 5.94 May 269 270.33 274.65 -1.33 -5.65 Jun 278 273.33 274.09 4.67 3.91 MAD (Mov Avg) = (11+1.33+4.67)/3 = 5.67; MAD (Sim Exp Smooth) = (5.94+5.65+3.91)/3 = 5.17

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Unformatted text preview: 3. Year 1: Average/qr. = 240 Year 2: Average/qr. = 220 Year Quarter Sales Seasonal Factors Mean Seasonal Factors 1 1 182.4 0.76 0.8 2 218.4 0.91 0.9 3 292.8 1.22 1.2 4 266.4 1.11 1.1 2 1 184.8 0.84 2 195.8 0.89 3 259.6 1.18 4 239.8 1.09 Year 3: Trend = 220 – 240 = -20; Average/qr. = 220 - 20 = 200 Forecasts, Yr. 3: Quarter 1: 200 x 0.8 = 160 Quarter 2: 200 x 0.9 = 180 Quarter 3: 200 x 1.2 = 240 Quarter 4: 200 x 1.1 = 220 4.a. Decision Table: Alternatives (Overbookings) States of Nature (No Shows) 1 2 80 160 1 125 80 2 250 125 Prob. 0.2 0.35 0.45 b. EV(0) = (0.2 x 0) + (0.35 x 80) + (0.45 x 160) = 100 EV(1) = (0.2 x 125) + (0.35 x 0) + (0.45 x 80) = 61 EV(2) = (0.2 x 250) + (0.35 x 125) + (0.45 x 0) = 93.75 Overbook 1 seat; EV = \$61 5a. b. EV(4) = (1.6x0.7) + (-0.1x0.3) = 1.09M EV(5) = (0.8x0.7) + (-0.9x0.3) = 0.29M EV(2) = (1.09x0.35) + (0x0.65) = 0.3815M EV(3) = (0.29x0.7) + (0x0.3) = 0.203 EV(1) = 0.3815M; Bid 1.6M...
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15W - 3 Year 1 Average/qr = 240 Year 2 Average/qr = 220...

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