IntroDecisionMaking

IntroDecisionMaking - Decision Making: Heuristics and...

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Decision Making: Heuristics and Biases Sign-In as you enter
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Announcements Extra Credit HW Assignments Header General comments
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Q version 1 Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations. What is the probability that… A. Linda is active in the feminist movement.
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Q version 1 Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations. What is the probability that… C. Linda is a bank teller.
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Q version 1 Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations. What is the probability that… D. Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement.
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In the Beginning It was always assumed that human thought was logical This assumption dates back to the earliest writings on thought Socrates and Plato assumed that people were logical This assumption stayed untested in philosophy and psychology for millennia
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But… People are not always logical They make mistakes They sometimes make bad decisions and draw false conclusions Yet it was still assumed that people are fundamentally logical, even if they were not always perfect in their execution.
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Bias: the phenomenon (human behavior) Systematic deviation from rational (normative) standards Heuristics = descriptive theory (of the phenomenon) Simple strategy that usually gives the rational answer, but leads to systematic bias in some circumstances
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When do biases emerge? How much information do we need to gather before we make a decision? Most of the time, we make decisions before actually considering all of the evidence Instead, we rely on incomplete, but informative strategies (heuristics) that help aid quick judgments But, these quick aids don’t always lead us to the correct, logical answer, causing biases
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3 Big Heuristics Representativeness Availability Anchoring
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Representativeness Heuristic Representative Heuristic: Probability judgments based
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This note was uploaded on 11/05/2011 for the course 830 306 taught by Professor Staff during the Fall '08 term at Rutgers.

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IntroDecisionMaking - Decision Making: Heuristics and...

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