StudyInstructionsANDInformation

# StudyInstructionsANDInformation - OVERVIEW OF THE STUDY...

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OVERVIEW OF THE STUDY – study variables and explanations behind their use We are manipulating two Independent Variables: Framing the options (as a disjunctive or conjunctive phrase) & the Type of Question we give (selecting the more probable option or giving a probability estimate). 1. Conjunction versus Disjunction : Are people using probabilistic calculations or are they making judgments based on similarity? a. Using a probability calculation, the conjunction of two events is less probable than just a single event occurring. The disjunction of two events is more probable than a single event occurring. Consider the following: Total people in pretend city 500 Number of bank tellers 100 Number of feminist activists 250 P(bank tellers) 100/500 = 1/5 = 0.2 P(feminist activists) 250/500 = 25/50 = 0.5 P(bank tellers or feminist activists) (1/5) + (25/50) = 0.7 P(bank tellers and feminist activists) (1/5) * (25/50) = 0.1 a.i. Notice that p( x and y ) < x and y ) < p(y) a.ii. Notice, also, that p(

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StudyInstructionsANDInformation - OVERVIEW OF THE STUDY...

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