E - 2. Sum up results, 3. Redistribute to participants...

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Causal: assumes demand is related to some underlying factor or factors in the environment, simulation models often used represented best by a regression equation Ex. ice cream sales in August (one thing causes another) X is independent variable, Y is dependent variable in regression equation Qualitative forecasting methods (market research, panel consensus, historical analogy, Delphi) Market research: used for product research; data collection methods are primarily surveys and interviews Panel consensus: open meetings with free exchange of ideas from all levels of management; lower level employees may feel threatened to state ideas Historical analogy: using a complementary/substitutable/competitive offerings to develop a growth model for a product Delphi method: conceals identity of the individuals participating in the study and everyone has the same weight 1. Use of questionnaires for anonymity,
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Unformatted text preview: 2. Sum up results, 3. Redistribute to participants along with new questions, 4 Repeat step again and again if necessary to refine forecasts and conditions, 5. Distribute final results to participants; can usually achieve satisfactory results in 3 rounds. (iterative approach) Quantitative forecasting methods (simple and weighted moving average, exponential smoothing, linear regression) (pg. 311) Linear regression forecasting: refers to the special class of regression where relationship between variables forms a straight line Y = mx + b useful for long-term forecasting of major occurrences & aggregate planning for product families restriction: assumes past data & projections fall in a straight line used in time series (one variable changes as a result of time) & causal forecasting (one variable changes as a result of another variable)...
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This note was uploaded on 11/04/2011 for the course BUS 361 taught by Professor Stuff during the Fall '11 term at BYU.

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E - 2. Sum up results, 3. Redistribute to participants...

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