Chapter 7 - Simulation

Chapter 7 - Simulation - Chapter 7 Simulation Simulation...

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Chapter 7 Simulation
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Simulation Definition: To assume the appearance or characteristics of reality In modeling: Conduct a series of experiments over a simulated period of time Try specific values of independent variables and test their impact on the dependent variable
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Simulation A descriptive tool Describes the characteristics of a system under varying conditions Optimal solution may never be considered
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Simulation Specialized software is available, including graphics and animation Traffic simulation Arena evacuation simulation Coffee Shop example Manufacturing example
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Other types of simulation models Business and military games Corporate planning System Dynamics Includes feedback loops E.g. macroeconomic models Model Income tax levels Corporate tax rates Interest rates Government spending Foreign trade policy GNP Inflation rates Unemployment rates Monetary supplies Population Growth rates
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Simulation Used when a problem is complex Assumptions of other modeling methods do not hold Too many interacting random events Mathematical formulation is too involved to be practical Simulation is very flexible. It can be used in many different situations
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Types of Simulation Deterministic Complex processes Multiple stages Complicated (but known) interactions All outcomes and their timing are known Probabilistic One or more independent variable is probabilistic (i.e. a random variable the follows a probability distribution) Can be discrete and continuous
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Types of Simulation Time dependent Precise timing is required E.g. waiting lines Units of time are one of the variables modeled Time independent Precise timing not required E.g. inventory problems
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Advantages of simulation Theory is straightforward and easily understood Modeler must interact extensively with the manager most familiar with the system Handles wide variation of problem types Allow manager to experiment with different alternatives Can include real life complexities Great amount of time compression can be
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Disadvantages of Simulation No optimal solution is guaranteed
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Chapter 7 - Simulation - Chapter 7 Simulation Simulation...

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