030204classdecis

030204classdecis - 16.422 Human Supervisory Control...

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16.422 Human Supervisory Control Classical Decision Theory & Bayes’ Theorem
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Decision Theory & Supervisory Control • Two broad areas of decision theory – Normative • Prescriptive – Descriptive • Why & how do we make decisions? – How does technology support or detract from “optimal” decision making • Informing Design 16.422 • Normative: How decisions should be made • Prescriptive: How decisions can be made, given human limitations • Descriptive: How decisions are made
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Elements of Decision Making 16.422 • The rational decision making process – Define the problem – Information gathering – Identify alternatives – Evaluate alternatives – Select and implement decision • Why decisions often go wrong: – Certainty vs. uncertainty – Bounded rationality – Nonlinearity – Habits & heuristics – Path of least resistance
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Classic Decision Theory • Maximizing expected value of the outcome – Primary assumption of rationality • Mathematical models of human decision making • Following assumptions are made about how people make decisions: – All alternatives are considered – Information acquisition is perfect – Probabilities are calculated correctly • Problems: – Humans are not rational decision makers – No universal agreement on the worth associated with various outcomes. 16.422
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Basic Concepts in Decision Analysis 16.422 • State: A description of the world • Events: A set of states {S 1 , S 2 ,…, S j } • Consequences: A set of states • Acts: Results from decisions S 1 S 2 Act 1 (A 1 )C 11 C 12 Act 2 (A 2 21 C 22
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Basic Terminology 16.422 • Ordering of preferences – Alternatives can be quantified and ordered – A > B, A preferred to B – A = B, A is equivalent to B –A B, B is not preferred to A • Transitivity of preference –i f A 1 A 2 , & A 2 A 3 , then A 1 A 3 ,
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Decision Trees 16.422
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030204classdecis - 16.422 Human Supervisory Control...

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