030904juduncstel

030904juduncstel - 16.422 Human Supervisory Control...

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16.422 Human Supervisory Control Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics & Biases
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The Uncertain State of the World 16.422 Probability Theory Objective Probability Subjective Probability Statistical Probability Axiomatic Probability •SEU •MAUT • Bayesian Nets
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Subjective Assessment 16.422 • Subjective assessment of probabilities is akin to assessment of size and distance • Perception versus expectation • Heuristics are useful but can be misleading
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The Ames Room 16.422 http://psylux.psych.tu-dresden.de/i1/kaw/diverses%20Material/www.illusionworks.com/html/ames_room.html (Image removed due to copyright considerations.)
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Expectations Can Fool You… 16.422 These checkershadow images may be reproduced and distributed freely. ©1995, Edward H. Adelson. Used with permission.
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16.422 • Humans as intuitive statisticians – Good at estimating means, reasonably good at mid-range proportions • Not good on the tails – Not so good at estimating variances and correlations – Also not good at extrapolating non-linear trends • Underestimate exponential growth • Cue assimilation issues – Missing – Information overload –Sa l ience
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16.422 • Cues are equally weighted and differential weights are not considered – Regression to the mean – Reliability of cues – Letters of recommendation – content v. tone • Humans are poor intuitive or clinical predictors as compared to computers – Multiple cues of different information value • Cognitive parsimony – Humans tend to reduce load on working memory. – Avoid processing of cues that require mental
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This note was uploaded on 11/07/2011 for the course AERO 16.410 taught by Professor Brianwilliams during the Fall '05 term at MIT.

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030904juduncstel - 16.422 Human Supervisory Control...

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