031104nadecision

031104nadecision - 16.422 Human Supervisory Control...

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Unformatted text preview: 16.422 Human Supervisory Control Naturalistic Decision Making Naturalistic Decision Making 16.422 • How experts make decisions in the real world – Descriptive method – Stress, time-pressure, dynamic conditions, ambiguous information, and ill-defined goals • Heuristics may introduce bias but can be very powerful. • Other related research areas: – Behavioral decision theory – Judgment decision making – Organizational decision making Group of behavioral scientists who shared common theme of “the importance of (1) time pressure, (2) uncertainty, (3) ill-defined goals, (4) high personal stakes, and (5) other complexities that characterize decision making in real-world settings.” 2nd theme was to study people with expertise during the decision making process 3rd theme was that people appeared to size up situations with more importance than they would select between courses of action NDM vs. Classic Decision Theory 16.422 • People are not always “rational” decision makers – But people are proficient • Situation-action matching decision rules – As opposed to choosing an alternate • Context-bound informal modeling as opposed to context-free formal modeling • Process orientation as opposed to prediction of outcomes • Empirical-based prescriptions Forms of NDM 16.422 • Recognition primed decision making • Related theories/methods – Critical decision method – Explanation based theory – Image theory 16.422 Recognition Primed Decision Making (RPD) • Intuitive form of diagnosis and prediction – Pattern matching • Multiple cues, highly correlated – Key observations • Requires learning and expertise – Experts choose feasible course of action without analyzing all or even many options • Decision making under uncertainty, time-pressure, & stress – Military commanders & firefighters • What biases might we see in RPD? RPD Process 16.422 • Boundary conditions: expertise, time-pressure, uncertainty/ill-defined goals • Recognition • Situation Understanding – – – – plausible goals critical cues expectancies typical actions • Serial Evaluation • Mental Simulation Coping With Uncertainty 16.422 • Inadequate understanding, lack of information, conflicted alternatives • RAWFS heuristic – Reducing uncertainty • Gathering more information – Assumption-based reasoning • Filling in gaps – Weighing pros and cons – Forestalling • Anticipate undesirable consequences – Suppressing uncertainty • Rationalization Recognition/Meta-cognition Model 16.422 • Another model (framework?) for how decision makers cope with uncertainty • Pattern matching critical • What happens when recognition fails? – Decision makers revert to assumption-based reasoning and meta-cognitive processes • Attempt to find flaws & weaknesses in evaluation • STEP: Construct a story, test, evaluate, & plan – A prescriptive approach NDM and Teams 16.422 • How does team decision making differ from individual? • Team SA and shared mental models • Studying teams in their natural environment – Real teams performing real tasks in real settings – Contextual focus as opposed to more general and abstract • Team research is not easy CTA Methods for NDM Research COGNITIVE TASK ANALYSIS Exploring the Current World Understanding the way people operate in their world Exploring the Envisioned World Discovering support for how people will operate in their world Techniques : Semantic Mapping Ethnographic / Observational investigations Critical Incident Technique Critical Decision Method Structured Interview Techniques CTA Model Scratch The Domain CT AR ep re Design Basis Pro se nta tio n Goal : Understand/model complexities, demands, variability, and complicating factors Techniques : Functional/Means-ends Analysis Ethnographic / Observational investigations Functional Task and Workflow Modeling Structured Interview Techniques Understanding the way the world works Time tot yp eR ep res Growth of Understanding Field of Practice Practitioner(s) Goal : Understand/model expertise, knowledge, strategies, and error en tat ion Discovering how to support the way the world will work Time Adapted from Carnegie Group, Inc. • critical decision method in which participants are asked to describe a specific decision-making incident in detail and then to respond to probes seeking elaboration of important aspects of the decision sequences. • Semantic mapping (a.k.a., mind-mapping, idea mapping, word webbing, etc.) is a term which describes a variety of strategies designed to show how key words or concepts are related to one another through graphic representations. Mapping is an effective technique for teaching vocabulary and textual patterns of organization; and it is also effective for improving note taking and creative thinking skills. Evaluating NDM Studies 16.422 • Laboratory vs. real-world settings • Credibility determined by: – – – – – Quality of research questions Data collection methods Suitability of methods for research questions Plausibility of answers Reasonableness of assumptions • Transferability • Cognition in the wild Forms of NDM 16.422 • Recognition primed decision making • Related theories/methods – Critical decision method – Explanation based theory – Image theory Critical Decision Method 16.422 • Retrospective interview technique – Cognitive probes used to elicit knowledge and strategies used in expert decision-making – Non-routine events • Based on critical incident technique (1954) – What led up to the situation? – What action was effective or ineffective? – What was the outcome or result of this action? • CDM focuses on identifying critical cues, judgments, & decisions – What-if queries John Flanagan is the originator if the CIT method. Read more at http://www.air.org/overview/flanagan.htm More CIT: http://www.apa.org/psycinfo/special/cit-intro.pdf http://www.emmus.org/html/frames/guidelines/EmmusWP3/methods/cit.html Explanation Based Model 16.422 • Need to generate a coherent story and match that story against possible choices • Formulating a full story based on incomplete facts – Filling in the gaps – Expectancies – Recall long term memory discussion • Match hypothesized story with possible outcomes – Modifying story to achieve a desired outcome is possible • Where might we see this in aviation accidents? Image Theory 16.422 • Decisions are not discrete events but a more complicated process – Progress Decisions: Are past decisions are being adequately carried out? – Adoption Decisions: Consideration of new goals, plans, principles or actions, • Problems – Unclear underlying goals – Poor planning or implementation of strategy – Values insufficient or incorrectly defined Value Image Trajectory Image Strategic Image Cognitive Continuum of Decision Making 16.422 Social Judgment Theories (Lens Model) Analytic Decisions • Analytic strategies • Example: SEU • Concurrent options • Unbounded rationality • Optimization with constraints Intuitive Decisions • Naturalistic Decision Making • Example: RPD • Serial options • Bounded rationality • Fast & frugal heuristics References 16.422 • Cooksey, R. W. (1996). Judgment Analysis: Theory, Methods, and Applications. San Diego, Academic Press. • Brunswik, E. (1952). The conceptual framework of psychology. Chicago, University of Chicago Press. • Klein, G. (1989). "Recognition-Primed Decisions." Advances in Man-Machine Research 5: 47-92 • Decision Making in Action: Models and Methods. G. Klein, J. Orasanu, R. Calderwood and C. E. Zsambok. Norwood, N.J., Ablex Publishing. • Beach, L.R., & Mitchell, T.R. (1990). Image theory: A behavioral theory of decision making in organizations. Research in Organizational Behavior, 12, 1-41. ...
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