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Unformatted text preview: ORIE 321/521 RECITATION 6 Spring 2007 In the previous recitation exercise, you computed the optimal betting strategy for a completed NCAA tournament. In this one, you will apply dynamic programming techniques to select a bet in the same style pool for a tournament that has not yet taken place. (To start, you will use data that was prepared just prior to last year’s NCAA men’s basketball tournament; as soon as the actual 64 teams are determined for this year, we will pub lish an updated version for this year that will be used for our extra credit competition.) Once again, 64 teams compete in a single elimination bracket consisting of 6 rounds. In each game, the winner advances and the loser is eliminated. (There are 32 winners that advance to round 2, 16 to round 3, etc., until the finals, in which only two teams compete for the championship.) So there are 63 games in total, and a team must win 6 games in a row to become the champion. The bracket is split into four regions of 16 teams apiece, and each team is given a seed from 1 to 16 (where this “seed”ing is a hypothesized ranking of these 16 teams from best to worst). The teams that have played the best during the season are rewarded with the lower numbered seeds, so the four #1 seeds are the favorites to win, while the four #16 seeds are perceived to have little chance of winning. The pool proposed by Robin Lock and popularized by former Cornell ORIE faculty member Rick Cleary works as follows: the teams are each given a price based on their seed, according to the table below. The costs are given in cents....
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 Spring '07
 SHMOYS/LEWIS
 Probability theory, probability density function, Expectation

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