lect6a - 1 Introduction to PODS Passenger Choice Model Dr....

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Unformatted text preview: 1 Introduction to PODS Passenger Choice Model Dr. Peter P. Belobaba 16.75J/1.234J Airline Management February 27, 2006 2 Overview of PODS Architecture Multiple iterations (samples) of pre-departure booking process and departure day: 4 Stationary process (no trends) 4 Initial input values for demands, then gradual replacement with direct observations 4 “Burn” first n observations in calculating final scores Pre-departure process broken into time frames: 4 RM system intervention at start of each time frame 4 Bookings arrive randomly during time frame 4 Historical data base updated at end of time frame 3 PODS Simulation: Basic Schematic REVENUE MANAGEMENT OPTIMIZER FORECASTER HISTORICAL BOOKING DATA BASE CURRENT BOOKINGS HISTORICAL BOOKINGS FUTURE BOOKINGS PATH/CLASS AVAILABILITY PATH/CLASS BOOKINGS/ CANCELLATIONS UPDATE PASSENGER DECISION MODEL 4 PODS Demand Inputs Total daily demand for an O-D market, by passenger type (business vs. leisure). Booking curves by passenger type over 16 booking periods before departure. Correlation parameters between passenger types and across booking periods. 5 Booking Arrival Curves by PAX Type 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 63 56 49 42 35 31 28 24 21 17 14 10 7 5 3 1 Days Out Percent Booked BUSINESS LEISURE 6 Business vs. Leisure Passengers Two passenger types defined by: 4 Time of day demand and schedule tolerance 4 Maximum out-of-pocket fare willingness to pay 4 “Attributed costs” associated with path quality, fare restrictions, trip re-planning...
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This note was uploaded on 11/08/2011 for the course AERO 16.72 taught by Professor Hansman during the Fall '06 term at MIT.

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lect6a - 1 Introduction to PODS Passenger Choice Model Dr....

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