01_murman_intro

01_murman_intro - 16.886 - Feb 3, 2004 16.886 - Air...

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16.886 - Feb 3, 2004 16.886 - Air Transportation Systems Architecting Course Introduction February 3, 2004 Prof. Earll Murman (Image removed due to copyright considerations.)
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16.886 - Feb 3, 2004 Course Information 16.886 Air Transportation Systems Architecting Graduate (Spring) H-Level Grad Credit Prereq: 16.885 or permission of instructor Units: 3-2-7 Lecture: TR9.30-11 AM Lab: Wed 3-5 pm Faculty:Earll Murman, John-Paul Clarke, John Hansman Bob Liebeck, Al Haggerty, Guest lecturers Accounts will be set up on workstations
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16.886 - Feb 3, 2004 Agenda • Drivers - Commercial and Military Cargo Transport Needs • Responses - Conventional and Advanced Concepts Formation Flight - A Possible Approach – Basic concepts – One flight result – Other considerations • Plan for the semester • Questions and responses – Turn in Student Profile and Preferences at end of class
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16.886 - Feb 3, 2004 Commercial Drivers • Globalization trends – Longer distances between producers and consumers – Emerging markets, e.g. China, South America, Africa • Lean manufacturing – Focus on “flow” to eliminate waste, e.g. JIT – Faster response to market demands • Air freight operators looking for new markets – Most transoceanic freight shipped by surface – Gap in capability- “middle market” • Ship is inexpensive but takes 18-30 days • Air is expensive but takes only 3-6 days • Operating economics drive – Increased capacity per air freighter – Reduced crew and fuel costs
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16.886 - Feb 3, 2004 Commercial Trends • Bartowski (FedEx) “Future Concepts for Air Cargo Delivery”, AIAA Paper 2003-2629 – Freighter fleet expected to double in 20 years – 90% of fleet capacity in “wide-body” aircraft in 20 years leading to 23% grown in payload capacity – Growth is in the “middle market” between air and surface for world wide freight market. • Jiang, et al (MIT ICAT), “Market and Infrastructure Analysis of Future Air Cargo Demand in China” – Air cargo growth through China airports expected to grow at 11.2% per annum for next 20 years. Includes both domestic and import/export.
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16.886 - Feb 3, 2004 Commercial Trends - Cont’d Allison, et al “Expedited Transport Airlines”, Final Report for 16.899 Air Transportation System Architecting. – World air cargo and freight to grow at 6.4-6.5% per year for next 10 years. – Total worldwide freight shipping expected to go from 132 to 383 Freight- Ton-Kilometers in 20 years. – Freighter Fleet to grow from 1,775 to 3,078, including retirement of 1,228 old freighters, mostly narrow body. – Long range freighter segment will be the fastest growing – Standard shipments take 4-6 days with only 10-15% time in the air. Most the time is ground transport, handling, waiting. – Top 10 markets will generate 40% of global airfreight in next 10 years: Intra Asia, China Europe, China North America, North America Asia, Europe Asia, North America Europe, Domestic USA Lots of good data in this report from last year’s class.
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16.886 - Feb 3, 2004 Military Drivers Threats are global Reaction times are shorter
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01_murman_intro - 16.886 - Feb 3, 2004 16.886 - Air...

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