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4_mcmanuslactur2 - 15 Space Systems, Policy, and...

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Unformatted text preview: 15 Space Systems, Policy, and Architecture Research Consortium ©2002 Massachusetts Institute of Technology 29 Using Architecture Models to Understand Policy Impacts 0.98 0.985 0.99 0.995 1 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Probability of Success Utility 0.98 0.985 0.99 0.995 1 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Lifecycle Cost ($M) A B C D Utility Cost 100% of B-TOS architectures have cost increase under restrictive launch policy for a minimum cost decision maker 98% of B-TOS architectures have increased launch probability of success under restrictive launch policy for a minimum cost decision maker Restrictive launch policy Unrestrictive launch policy Policy Policy increases increases cost cost Policy increases Policy increases launch probability launch probability of success of success B-TOS • Swarm of small sats. doing observation • Utility for multiple missions From Weigel, 2002 Space Systems, Policy, and Architecture Research Consortium ©2002 Massachusetts Institute of Technology 30 Using Architecture Models to Consider Uncertainty Performance and Cost move differently for different architectures under uncertainty TechSat • Constellation of satellites doing observation of moving objects on the ground • Uncertainties driven by instrument performance/cost From Walton, 2002 [Martin, 2000] 16 Space Systems, Policy, and Architecture Research Consortium ©2002 Massachusetts Institute of Technology 31 Changes in User Preferences Can be Quickly Understood 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 Original Revised User changed preference weighting for lifespan Architecture trade space reevaluated in less than one hour X-TOS Space Systems, Policy, and Architecture Research Consortium ©2002 Massachusetts Institute of Technology 32 Assessing Robustness and Adaptability • Pareto front shows trade-off of accuracy and cost • Determined by number of satellites in swarm • Could add satellites to increase capability 0.98 0.985 0.99 0.995 1 100 1000 Lifecycle Cost ($M) Utility A E D C B Utility Cost Most desirable architectures B-TOS ©2002 Massachusetts Institute of Technology...
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This note was uploaded on 11/08/2011 for the course AERO 16.851 taught by Professor Ldavidmiller during the Fall '03 term at MIT.

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4_mcmanuslactur2 - 15 Space Systems, Policy, and...

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