da2 - Engineering Risk Benefit Analysis 1.155 2.943 3.577...

This preview shows pages 1–5. Sign up to view the full content.

DA 2. The Value of Perfect Information 1 Engineering Risk Benefit Analysis 1.155, 2.943, 3.577, 6.938, 10.816, 13.621, 16.862, 22.82, ESD.72, ESD.721 DA 2. The Value of Perfect Information George E. Apostolakis Massachusetts Institute of Technology Spring 2007

This preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full Document
DA 2. The Value of Perfect Information 2 Recall the evaluation of the survey results (Slide 14, DA 1): Strong P(s/L 2 ) = 0.8 P(s/L 3 ) = 0.2 P(s/L 4 ) = 0.0 Mild P(m/L 2 ) = 0.2 P(m/L 3 ) = 0.6 P(m/L 4 ) = 0.3 Weak P(w/L 2 ) = 0.0 P(w/L 3 ) = 0.2 P(w/L 4 ) = 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0
DA 2. The Value of Perfect Information 3 Perfect Information (Clairvoyant) A clairvoyant, CV, is always correct , i.e., P[CV says L 2 /L 2 materializes] = 1.0 = P[s/L 2 ] P[CV says L 3 /L 2 materializes] = 0.0 = P[m/L 2 ] P[CV says L 4 /L 2 materializes] = 0.0 = P[w/L 2 ] Receiving the CV’s report removes all uncertainty.

This preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full Document
DA 2. The Value of Perfect Information 4 Calculations for “survey result is s” or “survey says L 2 ” (Slide 18, DA 1) Payoff Prior Likelihood Product Posterior
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

{[ snackBarMessage ]}

Page1 / 14

da2 - Engineering Risk Benefit Analysis 1.155 2.943 3.577...

This preview shows document pages 1 - 5. Sign up to view the full document.

View Full Document
Ask a homework question - tutors are online