da7 - Engineering Risk Benefit Analysis 1.155, 2.943,...

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DA 7 Decision Analysis in Practice 1 Engineering Risk Benefit Analysis 1.155, 2.943, 3.577, 6.938, 10.816, 13.621, 16.862, 22.82, ESD.72 DA 7. Decision Analysis in Practice George E. Apostolakis Massachusetts Institute of Technology Spring 2007
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DA 7 Decision Analysis in Practice 2 The Problem Recommend a technology to remediate a contaminated site. The recommendation should reflect the views of a number of stakeholders . Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MAUA) and deliberation are the bases for the recommendation.
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DA 7 Decision Analysis in Practice 3 Involving the Stakeholders Risk assessment can and should be used to involve stakeholders and provide a mechanism for the consideration of their cultural, socioeconomic, historical, and religious values, in addition to the risks to human health and the environment associated with the contamination of DOE facilities and their remediation. National Research Council, Building Consensus , 1994
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DA 7 Decision Analysis in Practice 4 The Analytic-Deliberative Process Analysis uses rigorous, replicable methods, evaluated under the agreed protocols of an expert community - such as those of disciplines in the natural, social, or decision sciences, as well as mathematics, logic, and law - to arrive at answers to factual questions. Deliberation is any formal or informal process for communication and collective consideration of issues. National Research Council, Understanding Risk , 1996.
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DA 7 Decision Analysis in Practice 5 Analytic-Deliberative Decision Making No Step 4 Deliberate and choose the best alternative Step 3 Rank and analyze decision alternatives for each stakeholder (PRA, MAUT, other) Yes Step 2 Is each decision alternative acceptable? Remove from further consideration Step 1 Formulate decision alternatives
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DA 7 Decision Analysis in Practice 6 The Site 1.9 Acres Disposal 1962 to 1981 Solvents, PCBs, metal acids, lab trash, misc. ebris 4 miles to nearest drinking - water well 3 miles to nearest spring 480 feet to water table Network of vapor extraction wells to reduce TCE vapor plume Landfill-wide excavation to top 15 ft to remove shallow primary sources of potential contamination
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DA 7 Decision Analysis in Practice 7 The Stakeholders Image removed due to copyright restrictions. Please see Table 1 in Apostolakis, George E., and Pickett, Susan E. “Deliberation: Integrating Analytical Results into Environmental Decisions Involving Multiple Stakeholders.” Risk Analysis 18 (1998): 621-634.
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DA 7 Decision Analysis in Practice 8 Decision Options Image removed due to copyright restrictions. Please see Table 2 in Apostolakis, George E., and Pickett, Susan E. “Deliberation: Integrating Analytical Results into Environmental Decisions Involving Multiple Stakeholders.” Risk Analysis 18 (1998): 621-634.
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DA 7 Decision Analysis in Practice 9 Fundamental and Means Objectives A distinction is made between “those things that participants fundamentally care
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da7 - Engineering Risk Benefit Analysis 1.155, 2.943,...

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