intro - Sometimes the historical record is surprising...

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Introduction 1 Engineering Risk Benefit Analysis 1.155, 2.943, 3.577, 6.938, 10.816, 13.621, 16.862, 22.82 ESD.72J, ESD.721 Introduction George E. Apostolakis Massachusetts Institute of Technology Spring 2007
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Introduction 2 Risk-Benefit Tradeoffs
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Introduction 3 Dealing with Uncertainty Risk management of large technological systems Choosing among alternative decision options Cost-benefit tradeoffs
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Introduction 4 Train Doors Falls inside train Escalators! Falls between train and platform Staircases Detrain Slips/trips Train Accidents From: Vincent Ho, The Applications of Quantitative Risk Assessment in the Railway The Applications of Quantitative Risk Assessment in the Railway Industry, INER presentation, December 2004 Industry, INER presentation, December 2004
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Unformatted text preview: Sometimes the historical record is surprising Typical Metro Railway Accidents Introduction 5 ERBA Make informed decisions concerning engineering projects that include important elements of technological or financial risk. The quantification of uncertainty is a key element. Three main topics to be covered: Reliability and Probabilistic Risk Assessment (RPRA) (includes a review of elementary probability theory) Decision Analysis (DA) Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) (except in ESD.721) Introduction 6 Level of Coverage Broad Survey Emphasis on: standard terminology fundamental issues strengths and weaknesses...
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intro - Sometimes the historical record is surprising...

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