opt_capacity

opt_capacity - MIT OpenCourseWare http:/ocw.mit.edu ESD.71...

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MIT OpenCourseWare http://ocw.mit.edu ESD.71 / 1.146 / 3.56 / 16.861 Engineering Systems Analysis for Design Fall 2008 For information about citing these materials or our Terms of Use, visit: http://ocw.mit.edu/terms .
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MIT subject ESD 71 Richard de Neufville OPTIMUM CAPACITY EXPANSION Prepared by: Ioanna Boulouta under the supervision of Professor Richard de Neufville Part 1: OPTIMUM INCREMENT FOR CAPACITY EXPANSION – BASE CASE GOALS: 1. Learn about capacity expansion problem and its possible optimal solution 2. Practice in use of NPV analysis on spreadsheets GENERAL PROBLEM DESCRIPTION: Alan Manne (1967), in his book “Investments for capacity expansion”, presents an analysis for calculating optimal sizes of plant capacity to be added at several points in time. Under growing demand and economies of scale there will be a choice between several time streams of expenditure. For example, if a single large plant is built, advantage can be taken of economies of scale in construction, however it requires a large initial investment. If several smaller plants are built at different times, you may sacrifice some production economies but you also gain by delaying part of the capital investment and avoiding interest payments. In general, Manne’s result is that new capacity should be added in fixed increments that depend on the intensity of the economies of scale and on the discount rate. [If there are no economies of scale, the best policy is to build “just in time” according to need. As economies of scale become more important, it is worthwhile building larger, even though that means you have to pay immediately for capacity you will only use later.] These fixed increments represent demand growth over a specific period, known as the cycle time for the addition of capacity. To compare expenditures incurred at different dates, Manne uses the discounted cash flow criterion (present value). In this exercise you will replicate his analysis. MODEL BRIEF DESCRIPTION: In his analysis, Manne assumed that (1) demand grows linearly over time and (2) there are no imports in the market. Hence, demand has to be satisfied at all times by internal production. This exercise provides you with a model (Optimal Capacity Expansion base case.xls), based on the same assumptions, that displays cash flows over 100 years. An infinite time horizon could also be used. The model uses discrete rather than continuous time analysis implied in Manne’s analytic version.
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