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cohen Population Next half century

cohen Population Next half century - Human Population The...

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DOI: 10.1126/science.1088665 , 1172 (2003); 302 Science et al. Joel E. Cohen, Human Population: The Next Half Century www.sciencemag.org (this information is current as of August 25, 2008 ): The following resources related to this article are available online at http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/302/5648/1172 version of this article at: including high-resolution figures, can be found in the online Updated information and services, http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/302/5648/1172/DC1 can be found at: Supporting Online Material found at: can be related to this article A list of selected additional articles on the Science Web sites http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/302/5648/1172#related-content 55 article(s) on the ISI Web of Science. cited by This article has been http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/302/5648/1172#otherarticles 6 articles hosted by HighWire Press; see: cited by This article has been http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/collection/sci_policy Science and Policy : subject collections This article appears in the following http://www.sciencemag.org/about/permissions.dtl in whole or in part can be found at: this article permission to reproduce of this article or about obtaining reprints Information about obtaining registered trademark of AAAS. is a Science 2003 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science; all rights reserved. The title Copyright American Association for the Advancement of Science, 1200 New York Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20005. (print ISSN 0036-8075; online ISSN 1095-9203) is published weekly, except the last week in December, by the Science on August 25, 2008 www.sciencemag.org Downloaded from
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Human Population: The Next Half Century Joel E. Cohen By 2050, the human population will probably be larger by 2 to 4 billion people, more slowly growing (declining in the more developed regions), more urban, especially in less developed regions, and older than in the 20th century. Two major demographic uncertainties in the next 50 years concern international migration and the structure of families. Economies, nonhuman environments, and cultures (including values, religions, and politics) strongly influence de- mographic changes. Hence, human choices, individual and collective, will have demographic effects, intentional or otherwise. It is a convenient but potentially dangerous fiction to treat population projections as exogenous in- puts to economic, environmental, cultural, and political scenarios, as if population processes were autonomous. Belief in this fiction is encouraged by conventional population projections, which ig- nore food, water, housing, education, health, phys- ical infrastructure, religion, values, institutions, laws, family structure, domestic and international order, and the physical and biological environ- ment. Other biological species are recognized ex- plicitly only in the recent innovation of quantify- ing the devastating demographic impacts of HIV and AIDS. The absence from population projec- tion algorithms of influential external variables indicates scientific ignorance of how external vari- ables influence demographic rates rather than any
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