Both misses and false alarms can happen

Both misses and false alarms can happen - are correct...

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Both misses and false alarms can happen. Regardless of the confidence in the  current paradigm, it is still possible for it to be wrong. Misses are those findings  which appeared to be well explained and integrated by the existing paradigm, but  which are, in fact, clear illustrations of instances of a different paradigm. False  alarms are those findings and completely different interpretations (which defines a  new paradigm), but which are in fact simple examples of the current paradigm.  This second figure illustrates the gain/risk principle underlying choices of  paradigms. Note that the actual shape of the functions are unknown. The  same figure as above was used for convenience.  The preceding figure illustrates that as findings and their interpretation  deviate from the normally accepted paradigm, the potential for gain if they 
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Unformatted text preview: are correct increases. However, their probability of being correct dramatically decreases. A choice of a paradigm can therefore be seen as somewhat like the choice between taking a single step toward your destination or jumping 100 yards in a direction which is most likely wrong but could be right. The paradigm specifies a range of views which optimize the gain/risk decision. Many small but correct steps gain more in the long run than a few big steps likely to be wrong. The next three figures illustrate the factors underlying an actual choice of a paradigm. In order to illustrate the factors, a three dimensional figure would be needed. You must, therefore, combine the next figure which gives the front view (right to left) with the third figure which gives the side view (front to back)....
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Both misses and false alarms can happen - are correct...

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