lec5_jls - BE.104 Spring Epidemiology Test Development and...

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BE.104 Spring “Epidemiology: Test Development and Relative Risk” J. L. Sherley Agent X Health ? Cause First, Some definitions Morbidity = sickness, disease, [toxicity] – Hard to quantify Mortality = death – Easy to quantify Annual Death Rate = Total deaths during specified 12 months Number of persons in pop. @ middle of the period specified Age-specific ADR = ADR for a specified age Age-adjusted ADR = adjusted ADR (indexing for age differences, e.g., death rates in nursing home versus general population) Incidence = # of NEW cases in a population during a specified period of time = “Rate of appearance in group at risk” Number of persons exposed to risk of developing disease in same interval (by convention per 100,000 persons) Prevalence = # of cases in population at a specified time = “Frequency” # of persons present in pop. at same time (By convention per 100,000 persons) [Prevalence α Incidence X duration of disease based on death or cure] “Chronic disease will be more prevalent” 1
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Tests disease To determine these epi-parameters, we need to develop tests to detect and quantify exposure death Develop tests - Disease measurements (death is not all that easy to quantify when you want death from a specific cause) - Exposure measurements to X - Measure X in the environment Properties of a good test Simple Well tolerated < by all involved; subject & tester > High throughout Proven versus newly developed Precise Accurate: Sensitive, Specific, Predictive 2
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