Linear Prog COP4355_Part_32

Linear Prog COP4355_Part_32 - Chapter 11 Forecasting 132 44...

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132 Chapter 11 Forecasting (g) Trend factor = ˆ Y = 10.36 + 0.821X = 10.36 = 0.821(49) = 50.59 Seasonal factor for 49[see (e); month 1] S = 1.83 Cyclical factor, C = -2.5 ˆ Y = T + S + C = 50.59 + 1.83 - 2.5 = 49.92 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 0 1 02 03 04 05 06 0 Month Seasonally Adjusted
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Solutions Manual and Workbook 133 11.24 (a)(b) α = 0.1 Solution: Weighted Moving Weighted Moving Moving Average Moving Average Exponential Period Measure Average Forecast Average Forecast Smoothing Jan 160.00 160.00 Feb 130.00 136.67 136.67 160.00 Mar 120.00 135.00 135.00 157.00 Apr 155.00 143.33 136.67 143.33 136.67 153.30 May 155.00 141.67 135.00 141.67 135.00 153.47 Jun 115.00 135.00 143.33 135.00 143.33 153.62 Jul 135.00 136.67 141.67 136.67 141.67 149.76 Aug 160.00 145.00 135.00 145.00 135.00 148.28 Sep 140.00 150.00 136.67 150.00 136.67 149.46 Oct 150.00 148.33 145.00 148.33 145.00 148.51 Nov 155.00 155.00 150.00 155.00 150.00 148.66 Dec 160.00 148.33 148.33 149.29 Forecast 155.00 155.00 Variance 131.39 267.28 131.39 267.28 397.05 (c) Obs X Y XY X 2 Y 2 ˆ Y Y- ˆ (Y- ˆ Y ) 2 1 1.00 160.00 160.00 1.00 25600.00 136.9872 23.0128 529.5912 2 2.00 130.00 260.00 4.00 16900.00 138.3683 -8.3683 70.0280 3 3.00 120.00 360.00 9.00 14400.00 139.7494 -19.7494 390.0390 4 4.00 155.00 620.00 16.00 24025.00 141.1305 13.8695 192.3624 5 5.00 155.00 775.00 25.00 24025.00 142.5116 12.4884 155.9591 6 6.00 115.00 690.00 36.00 13225.00 143.8928 -28.8928 834.7916 7 7.00 135.00 945.00 49.00 18225.00 145.2739 -10.2739 105.5526 8 8.00 160.00 1280.00 64.00 25600.00 146.6550 13.3450 178.0891 9 9.00 140.00 1260.00 81.00 19600.00 148.0361 -8.0361 64.5794 10 10.00 150.00 1500.00 100.00 22500.00 149.4173 0.5827 0.3396 11 11.00 155.00 1705.00 121.00 24025.00 150.7984 4.2016 17.6537 12 12.00 160.00 1920.00 144.00 25600.00 152.1795 7.8205 61.1604 Sum 78.00 1735.00 11475.00 650.00253725.00 1734.9998 0.0001 600.1460 Avg 6.50 144.58 956.25 54.17 21143.75 144.5833 0.0000 260.0146 a = 135.6060 b = 1.3811 Regression Equation: R 2 = 0.0949 Y^ = 135.606 + 1.381122 X R = 0.3081 Std Error = 16.1250 MAD = 12.5534
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134 Chapter 11 Forecasting 11.25 (a) Alpha value is .2 Solution:
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Linear Prog COP4355_Part_32 - Chapter 11 Forecasting 132 44...

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