CC-Lecture3-updated

CC-Lecture3-updated - CLIMATE CHANGE Lecture 3 Today: 1....

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CLIMATE CHANGE Lecture 3 Today: 1. How humans modify the climate 2. Future climate models 3. Climate impact on humans 4. What can be done?
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‘Anthropogenic’ Changes Radiative Forcing (Wm -2 ) 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
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‘Anthropogenic’ Changes (2) 560ppmv CO 2 ~2060 The past 1000 years
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Climate models capture the last 100 year's warming only if we include the human effects
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Predicting the Future with Climate Models Used to predict how the Earth system might react decades into the future What-if simulations
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What will the future climate look like? Global warming due to greenhouse gases will continue for many years even if we stop releasing CO2 How much warming occurs depends on what societies and businesses decide about how much fuel they burn We use climate models to predict what might happen in different cases
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Climate change and its manifestation in terms of weather (climate extremes)
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Climate models “Global circulation models” (GCM) - sophisticated computer programs that represent the laws of physics as they apply to the Earth’s atmosphere, ocean, land, and ice.
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Global Climate Models 1. Tell the computer how to force the climate 2. Use science to come up with equations at points on the earth that tell what the Temperature, Winds (etc) are and how they change Change things around and see what happens!!!
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Carbon emission
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12 Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) study o A1FI: fossil fuel intensive energy system o A1T: non-fossil fuel intensive energy system o A1B: no one energy source relied on o A2: self-reliant economy, preservation of local identities o B1: service and information economy, clean technology, global solutions o B2: B1 with local solutions, increasing population, less technology Future emissions scenarios
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Surface Temperature Variations 1000-2100
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GCMs scenarios by IPCC Even if the concentrations of all greenhouse gases and aerosols had been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of about 0.1 ° C per decade would be expected
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Climate Change Projected for 2100 Rapid Economic Growth Slower Economic Growth
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Land areas are projected to warm more than the oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100 relative to 1990: Global Average in 2085 = 3.1 o C
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CC-Lecture3-updated - CLIMATE CHANGE Lecture 3 Today: 1....

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