chap004 - Chapter 4 Decision Support and Decision...

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Unformatted text preview: Chapter 4 Decision Support and Decision Artificial Intelligence Artificial Brainpower for Your Business 4-1 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Presentation Overview 4-2 Decisions, Decisions, Decisions Decision Support Systems Collaboration Systems Geographic Information Systems Artificial Intelligence Expert Systems Neural Networks Genetic Algorithms Intelligent Agents Management Information Systems for the Information Age Opening Case Study 4-3 Continental Airlines Files High with Continental Decision Support Decision Continental implemented a decision Continental support system to provide up-to-thesupport minute flight information. What other types of decision support What systems could Continental Airlines implement? implement? Management Information Systems for the Information Age Introduction 4-4 Types of computer-aided decision support. Types Management Information Systems for the Information Age Decisions, Decisions, Decisions, Decisions Decisions How You Make a Decision 4-5 Four phases of Four decision making making Management Information Systems for the Information Age Decisions, Decisions, Decisions, Decisions Decisions How You Make A Decision 1. Intelligence – find or recognize a problem, need, or opportunity. problem, 2. Design – consider ways to solve the problem, fill the need, or take advantage of an opportunity. of 4-6 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Decisions, Decisions, Decisions, Decisions Decisions How You Make A Decision 3. Choice – examine and weigh the merits Choice of each solution, estimate the consequences of each, and choose the best one. best 4. Implementation – carry out the chosen solution, monitor the results, and make adjustments as necessary. adjustments 4-7 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Decisions, Decisions, Decisions, Decisions Decisions Types of Decisions You Face 4-8 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Decisions, Decisions, Decisions, Decisions Decisions Types of Decisions You Face Structured decision - processes a Structured certain kind of information in a specified way so that you will always get the right answer. Nonstructured decision - one for which Nonstructured there may be several “right” answers, and there is no precise way to get a right answer. Management Information 4-9 Systems for the Information Age Decisions, Decisions, Decisions, Decisions Decisions Types of Decisions You Face Recurring decision - one that happens repeatedly, and often periodically. Nonrecurring decision - one that you make infrequently. 4-10 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Decision Support Systems Decision support system (DSS) - highly flexible and interactive IT system that is designed to support decision making when the problem is not structured. 4-11 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Decision Support Systems Decision Components of a Decision Support System Components 4-12 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Decision Support Systems Decision Components of a Decision Support System System A typical DSS has three components: Model management Data management User interface management Model management - consists of both the Model DSS models and the DSS model management system. 4-13 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Decision Support Systems Decision Components of a Decision Support System System Data management - performs the function of storing and maintaining the information that you want your DSS to use. User interface management - allows you to communicate with the DSS. 4-14 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Collaboration System Collaboration Collaboration system – software system that is designed specifically to improve the performance of teams by supporting the sharing and flow of information.anagement Information of M 4-15 Systems for the Information Age Collaboration System Collaboration Enterprise-wide Collaboration Enterprise-wide Lotus Notes and Microsoft Exchange are Lotus types of integrated collaboration systems. types 4-16 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Collaboration System Collaboration Supply-Chain Collaboration Supply-Chain Supply chain management means working Supply with your suppliers and distributors in all phases of planning, production, and distribution. distribution. 4-17 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Collaboration System Collaboration Web-Based Collaboration Web-Based Web-based collaboration tools use the Web-based power of the Internet to enable people to work together effectively and efficiently. work The peer-to-peer file-sharing feature is The combined with the ability to create and edit documents collaboratively, and to send and receive text and voice messages. 4-18 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Geographic Information Systems Geographic information system (GIS) a decision support system designed to work with spatial information. Spatial information is any information that Spatial can be shown in map form, such as roads, the distribution of bald eagle populations, and the layout of electrical lines. and 4-19 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Geographic Information Systems 4-20 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Artificial Intelligence Artificial intelligence (AI) - the science of making machines imitate human thinking and behavior. Robot - mechanical device equipped with simulated human senses and the capability of taking action on its own. 4-21 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Artificial Intelligence The AI systems that businesses use The most can be classified into four categories: categories: 1. 2. 3. 4. 4-22 Expert systems Neural networks Genetic algorithms Intelligent agents Management Information Systems for the Information Age Expert Systems Expert system, or knowledge-based Expert system - artificial intelligence system that applies reasoning capabilities to reach a conclusion. 4-23 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Expert Systems Components of an Expert System Expert systems are good for diagnostic (what’s Expert wrong?) and prescriptive (what to do?) problems. wrong?) 4-24 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Expert Systems Components of an Expert System An expert system combines information, An people, and IT components. people, Information types include: Domain Domain expertise – the reasoning process that will solve the problem. that “Why” information. Problem facts. 4-25 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Expert Systems Components of an Expert System 4-26 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Expert Systems Components of an Expert System People People Domain expert - provides the domain expertise in the form of problem-solving strategies. Knowledge engineer – IT specialist who Knowledge IT formulates the domain expertise into an expert system. Knowledge worker or user - that’s you. 4-27 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Expert Systems Components of an Expert System IT Components Knowledge base - stores the rules of the expert system. system. Knowledge acquisition – used to enter the rules. Inference engine - takes the problem facts and searches the knowledge base for rules that fit. User interface – used to run the consultation. User Explanation module – where information is stored. 4-28 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Expert Systems What Expert Systems Can and Can’t Do An expert system can: Reduce errors Improve customer service Reduce costs An expert system can’t: Use common sense Automate all processes 4-29 Management Information Systems for the Information Age On Your Own Traffic Lights Revisited (p. 199) Neural Networks Neural network (often called an artificial neural network or ANN) - an artificial neural or ANN an intelligence system that is capable of finding and differentiating patterns. 4-30 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Neural Networks Neural Types of Neural Networks Types Self-organizing neural Self-organizing network - finds patterns and network relationships in vast amounts of data by itself. Back-propagation neural Back-propagation network - a neural network trained by someone. 4-31 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Team Work How Would You Classify People? (p. 202) Neural Networks Inside a Neural Network Inside 4-32 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Genetic Algorithms Genetic algorithm - an artificial intelligence system that mimics the evolutionary, survival-of-the-fittest process to generate increasingly better solutions to a problem. 4-33 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Genetic Algorithms Genetic algorithms use three concepts of Genetic evolution: evolution: Selection Selection — survival of the fittest. Crossover — combining portions of good Crossover outcomes in the hope of creating an even better outcome. better Mutation — randomly trying combinations Mutation and evaluating the success (or failure) of the outcome. outcome. 4-34 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Genetic Algorithms Team Work Be a Genetic Algorithm and Put Nails in Boxes (p. 206) 4-35 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Intelligent Agents Intelligent agent - software that assists you, or acts on your behalf, in performing repetitive computer-related tasks. Four types of intelligent agents include: 4-36 Buyer agents or shopping bots User or personal agents Monitoring-and-surveillance or predictive agents Data-mining agents Management Information Systems for the Information Age Intelligent Agents Intelligent Buyer Agents Buyer Buyer agent or shopping bot - an shopping intelligent agent on a Web site that helps the customer find products and services. the 4-37 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Intelligent Agents Intelligent Buyer Agents Buyer Types of filtering include: Collaborative filtering - a method of placing you in an affinity group of people with the same characteristics. Profile filtering - requires that you choose terms or enter keywords. terms 4-38 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Intelligent Agents Intelligent Buyer Agents Buyer Types of filtering continued: Psychographic filtering - anticipates your preferences based on the answers you give to a questionnaire. Adaptive filtering - asks you to rate products or situations and also monitors your actions over time to find out what you like and dislike. 4-39 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Intelligent Agents Intelligent User Agents User User agents (sometimes called personal agents) intelligent agents that take action on your behalf. 4-40 Management Information Systems for the Information Age On Your Own Go Bargain Hunting Online (p. 209) Intelligent Agents Intelligent Monitoring-and-Surveillance Agents Monitoring-and-Surveillance Monitoring-and-surveillance agents (also called predictive agents) - observe and report on equipment. 4-41 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Intelligent Agents Intelligent Data-Mining Agents Data-Mining Data-mining agent - operates in a data warehouse discovering information. 4-42 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Intelligent Agents Intelligent Components of an Intelligent Agent Components Autonomy - act without your telling them every step to take. Adaptivity - discovering, learning, and taking action independently. Sociability - conferring with other agents. 4-43 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Closing Case Study One Using Neural Networks To Categorize Using People People Using neural network software, Using businesses now have the ability to look for patterns in their customer information. patterns How accurate is it for a business to predict How the future behavior of customers on the basis of past behavior? basis 4-44 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Closing Case Study Two Decision Support and Artificial Decision Intelligence in Health Care Intelligence Good health care is based largely on good Good information. information. How can DSS and AI be used to track How symptoms, treatment, and outcomes that require the collection and maintenance of a huge amount of qualitative and quantitative information? quantitative 4-45 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Summary Summary Student Learning Outcomes 1. Define decision support system, list its 1. Define components, and identify the type of applications it’s suited to. applications 2. Define collaboration systems along with Define their features and uses. their 3. Define geographic information systems Define and state how they differ from other decision support tools. decision 4-46 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Summary Summary Student Learning Outcomes Student 4. Define artificial intelligence and list the Define different types that are used in business. different 5. Define expert systems and describe the Define types of problems to which they are applicable. applicable. 6. Define neural networks, their uses, and a Define major strength and weakness of these AI systems. systems. 4-47 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Summary Summary Student Learning Outcomes Student 7. Define genetic algorithms and list the Define concepts on which they are based, and the types of problems they solve. the 8. Define intelligent agents, list the four Define types, and identify the types of problems they solve. they 4-48 Management Information Systems for the Information Age Summary Summary Assignments & Exercises Assignments 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4-49 Make a GIS Collaboration work Choose a financing option Which software would you use? What should the music store owner do? Management Information Systems for the Information Age Visit the Web to Learn More www.mhhe.com/haag Learning about investing Researching the company behind the Researching stock stock Finding other sources of company Finding financials financials Making trades online Retrieving stock quotes Computer-aided decision support Management Information 4-50 Systems for the Information Age ...
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This note was uploaded on 11/15/2011 for the course I SYS 201 taught by Professor Meservy during the Winter '11 term at BYU.

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