Climate change and civil war:Defintion: Burke et al, has calculated that an increase in temperature, due to climate change, will lead to an increase in the incidence of civil war in Africa.Significance: When looking at climate model projections for future temperatures Burke et al. have calcutated that in the year 2030 there will be a 54 % increase in the incidence of civil war in sub-saharan Africa. They have also shown that nonclimate factors like increases in economic growth and democratization will not have a big effect in alleviating this high risk of civil war, if they increase in the same rate as they have the past 40 years. The knowledge of this relationship can have important implications in the creation of future development policies.Example: An example of a development policy that the authors describe is; that if temperature is primarly affecting the likelyhood of conflict through blows to economic productivity in respect to agriculture. Then governments and aid donors could help reduce the risk of conflict by improving the ability of African agriculture to deal with extreme heat.
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