2011 03 29 Environmental Policy

2011 03 29 Environmental Policy - 
 Insights from Science...

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Unformatted text preview: 
 Insights from Science, Impera3ves for Policy National Science Policy in the 21st Century -PUBPOL/PHYSICS481 March 28, 2011 Rosina Bierbaum Dean and Professor and Co‐director, World Development Report 2010 9/11 Sputnik (Currently, 85% of non-defense R&D is Research) Rice’s
Rick
Smalley
 (1943‐2005) 2011 2050 6.5 9 Billion People Billion People These challenges are all tied to sustainability— Where is the environmental R&D to solve them ??? Rice’s
Rick
Smalley
 (1943‐2005) 2003 2050 6.5 8-10 Billion People Billion People 9/11 Sputnik (Currently, 85% of non-defense R&D is Research) 24 December 1968, Apollo 8 “Earthrise” Archibald MacLeish, American writer and poet, The New York Times, 25 December 1968 24 December 1968, Apollo 8 “Earthrise” “To see the Earth as it truly is, small and blue and beautiful in that eternal silence where it floats, is to see ourselves as riders on the Earth together, We are no longer just “riders”– we are the drivers; brothers on AseNobelist Paul Crutzen has noted, the eternal that bright the Anthropocene!in loveliness w have entered cold— Archibald MacLeish, American writer and poet, The New York Times, 25 December 1968 Climate Change is the biggest environmental challenge: it’s a matter of degrees... U‐M
School
of
Natural
Resources
&
Environment,
R.
Bierbaum
©
 h=p://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

updated
January
12,
2011
 A matter of degrees... U‐M
School
of
Natural
Resources
&
Environment,
R.
Bierbaum
©
 Noxious Weeds Alliaria petolata (Garlic Mustard) Lythrum salicaria L. (Purple Loosestrife) Pueraria lobata (Kudzu) 1 hour ozone (ppb) A matter of degrees... U‐M
School
of
Natural
Resources
&
Environment,
R.
Bierbaum
©
 17 Moonscape: An Indian woman walks on the dried up Osman Sagar lake on the outskirts of the capital of the southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh Hyderabad. The amount of the earth's surface afflicted by drought has 18 more than doubled since the 1970s http://www.time.com/time/photoessays/2006/global_warming/ Climate
change
 GLOBAL
AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE
IS
RISING

 AT
AN
ACCELERATING
RATE
 SCIENTIFIC
CONSENSUS:

 
RATES
OF
CHANGE
ARE
NOT
SUSTAINABLE
 Already
we
are
1oC
above
preindustrial
temperature

levels
 “Business
as
usual”
will
take
us
through
4oC

 Prudence
suggests
trying
to
limit
warming
to
2oC

 Stern, 2006 CLIMATE
CHANGES
ARE
ALREADY
 UNDERWAY
IN
THE
U.S.
TOO
 Increasing
temperature

 Increasingly
intense
downpours
 Rising
sea
level
 Rapidly
retreaTng
glaciers
 Thawing
permafrost
 Longer
growing
season
 Longer
ice‐free
season
in
the

 ocean
and
on
lakes
and
rivers
 •  Earlier
snowmelt
 •  Increase
in
droughts,
fires,
floods
 •  •  •  •  •  •  •  USGCRP
2009
 SCIENTIFIC
CONSENSUS:




SUBTROPICAL
PLANTS
ARE
MOVING
NORTH
 Source:
New
York
Times,
May
3,
2007
 SCIENTIFIC
CONSENSUS::
IENTIFIC
CONSENSUS:
 THE
FUTURE?
CLIMATE
CHANGE
IMPACTS
 EVERY
SECTOR Health
Impacts
 
 Heat
stress
 InfecWous
disease
spread
 Air
quality
/
respiratory
effects
 Carbon
Dioxide
and
 Climate
Changes
 CO2
and
GHGs
 Temperature
 PrecipitaWon
 Sea
Level
Rise
 Agriculture
Impacts
 Crop
yields
 IrrigaWon
demands
 Pests
and
weed

 Forest
Impacts
 Shi_
geographic
range
 Tree
health
and
producWvity
 Water
Resource
Impacts
 QuanWty,
quality
and
Wming
 Increased
compeWWon

 Coastal
Area
Impacts

 Sealevel
rise,
flooding.
 Erosion
of
beaches
 Ecosystem
Impacts
 Shi^s
in
ecological
zones
 Loss
of
habitat
and
species
 Coralreefs
threatened
 POPULATION
GROWTH
IS
HIGHEST
IN
AREAS
WITH
 INCREASING
WATER
STRESS
 California
water
use
to
 increase
by
40%
over
the
 next
25
years.
 Florida Stadiums Under Water Source: Sports Illustrated, Vol. 106, Issue 11 March 12, 2007 Species
Must
Move
Fast
to
 Keep
Up
With
Shi_ing
 Climate:

 
27
‐
45
feet
per
day
 DanieVDM,
Flickr
 CHANGING
FOREST
TYPES
 SAY

GOODBYE

TO…
 CO2,
CLIMATE
CHANGE
AND
HEALTH
 
 IN
OUR
BACKYARDS 
 Mold Pollen Heatwaves & smog Particulates & pollen WNV Poison Ivy Tree pollen Lyme Ragweed P.
Epstein,
2007
 Mushroom spores 
 AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTIVITY
‐
THE
POOR
WILL
SUFFER
 THEMOST
 CLIMATE
CHANGE
IS
ALSO
UNFAIR:

 World
Bank
World
Development
Report
2010
 We
must
Adapt
to
climate
change,
adapTvely:

 






how
can
we
help
make
robust
rather
than
opTmal
decisions
 •  Infrastructure
to
withstand
new
“extremes”
 •  Seed
varieTes
that
perform
well
in
droughts/floods/heat;
seed
banks
 •  PrioriTze
lands
to
preserve
and
manage
mulTple
threats
 •  Emergency
response
plans,
early‐warning
alert
systems

 •  Develop
social
safety
nets
/
insurance
 •  InformaTon
systems
/
share
best
pracTces
 •  Weather
&
climate

monitoring

and
services
 •  Regional
assessments
 LESSONS: 20 years in DC Science is not the loudest voice — so use it wisely Timing is all Small is beautiful An unsustainable trend is unsustainable !  All “missing” science can’t be done at once Science must be policy-relevant, not policy prescriptive INCREASING
CONFIDENCE
IN
THE
SCIENCE
 “The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate” “There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities” “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal…. Most of the observed increase in globally-averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.” LESSONS: 20 years in DC Science is not the loudest voice — so use it wisely !  Timing is all — bad timing can be lethal !  Small is beautiful !  An unsustainable trend is unsustainable !  All “missing” science can’t be done at once !  Science must be policy-relevant, not policy prescriptive See 2009 version at: http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientificassessments/us-impacts Development of International Climate Change Regime 1988 1992 1997 2001 2007 - 2009 2011 IPCC established Framework Convention Kyoto Protocol ????? US not part of Kyoto Bali / Copenhagen/ Poznań Mexico/ Capetown (UNFCCC) Scientific assessment Non-binding aim Science stronger Binding emissions target 9/11 Science more compelling! Mitigation Adaptation Technology Finance A global treaty…?? LESSONS: 20 years in DC Science is not the loudest voice — so use it wisely Timing is all — bad timing can be lethal Small is beautiful —“KISS” !  An unsustainable trend is unsustainable !  All “missing” science can’t be done at once !  Science must be policy-relevant, not policy prescriptive An example: Changing ecosystems at a global mean temperature increase of 3oC Extinction Degradation Improvement Ecosystems that change are coloured. Improvement: More trees and higher productivity Degradation: Extinction: Fewer trees and lower productivity Large habitat decline and irreversible change Baltimore Orioles LOOK FOR TEACHABLE MOMENTS Cherry Blossoms -- Harbinger of a Warming Climate • Data from 75 reference gardens around the globe show spring occurs 1 week earlier and fall 5 days later than 30 years ago (1998) •  Peak blooming date for cherry trees (Prunus sps.) on the Tidal Basin in Washington DC has been recorded since 1912; the date has advanced ~10 days over this period. Bierbaum, 1998 LESSONS: 20 years in DC Science is not the loudest voice — so use it wisely Timing is all — bad timing can be lethal Small is beautiful — “KISS” An unsustainable trend is unsustainable — act to change it !  All “missing” science can’t be done at once Science must be policy-relevant, not policy prescriptive OZOOZONE DEPLETING SUBSTANCES WERE ON A N UNSUSTAINABLE TREND Montreal Protocol •  Vienna Convention in 1985 –  framework agreement •  Montreal Protocol in 1987 –  Phase-out schedules for CFCs and halons •  London Amendment in 1990 –  accelerated phase outs; additional CFC’s, CCl4, CH3CCl3 •  Copenhagen Amendment in 1992 –  added methyl bromide, HBFCs, HCFCs •  Montreal Amendment in 1997 –  finalized phase-out schedules for methyl bromide LESSONS: 20 years in DC Science is not the loudest voice — so use it wisely Timing is all — bad timing can be lethal Small is beautiful — “KISS” An unsustainable trend is unsustainable — act to change it !  All “missing” science can’t be done at once — need Assessments to prioritize research needs Science must be policy-relevant, not policy prescriptive Climate Change Research Needs (from 2 Congressionally mandated Assessments) • Regional impacts --What does it mean in my place? •  Interactions with other environmental stresses --so that “fixes” will not exacerbate other problems; worry about “tipping points” •  Extreme Events and their consequences --because they will increase in the future and we do not handle them well now Climate Change Research Needs • Regional impacts --What does it mean in my place? — these h e wit cop to owwith other! environmental stresses •  Interactions nd h TION !!!! A --so APT“fixes” will not exacerbate other that A AD problems; worry about “tipping points” •  Extreme Events and their consequences --because they will increase in the future and we do not handle them well now LESSONS: 20 years in DC Science is not the loudest voice — so use it wisely Timing is all — bad timing can be lethal Small is beautiful — “KISS” An unsustainable trend is unsustainable — act to change it !  All “missing” science can’t be done at once — need Assessments !  Science must be policy-relevant, not policy prescriptive — avoid politicization, but defend the ‘truth’ Senator Moynihan, 1990 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-h-gleick/misrepresenting-climate-s_b_819367.html The science is incredibly strong and verified   Surface and tropospheric temperatures increasing   Atmospheric water vapour increasing   Ocean heat content increasing …   … now directly linked to sea level rise   Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets losing mass   Glaciers and snow cover decreasing   Arctic sea ice extent decreasing—VERY RAPIDLY!!!!   Area of seasonally frozen ground decreasing   More intense and longer droughts   Frequency of heavy precipitation events increasing   Extreme temperatures increasing   Tropical cyclone intensity increasing Unequivocal 7 Manning, IPCC, WGI,22007 Today: the world is inequitable •  1.4 billion people in poverty •  A quarter of children malnourished •  A quarter of women illiterate •  1.6 billion without modern energy •  1/6 without clean water Tomorrow: climate change exacerbates inequities •  Most impacts will be negative, especially for poorest, most vulnerable nations. •  Water resources, coastal infrastructure, health, agriculture, and ecosystems will be challenged in virtually every region of the globe. •  International, regional, and national entities are ill-prepared to manage. •  Both mitigation and adaptation are needed because:
 –  It’s already too late to avoid substantial climate change. –  Most adaptation measures more costly and less effective as magnitude increases. http://www.unfoundation.org/globalissues/climate- and-energy/sigma-xi.html http://worldbank.org/wdr/2010 MAKING IT HAPPEN:   We’ve
come
a
long
way
               NEW
PRESSURES
 Drumbeat
of
science
 PoliTcs
are
changing

 CiTes,
states
and
countries
are
taking
 acTon
 Individuals,
business
and
organizaTons
 are
responding

 LegislaTon?


 A
climate
treaty
with
teeth?
 More
is
needed
to
turn
awareness
into
 the
needed
acTons
   “
So^”

policy
tools
–
communicaTon
and
 educaTon;

social
norms
 17% reduction 65% reduction $791 million saved 25% reduction $100 million saved 69% reduction $2 billion saved “It
is
our
collecWve
responsibility
 to
find
‘unselfish’
soluWons
and
 fast
before
it’s
too
late
to
reverse
 the
damage
caused
every
day.”
 Maria
Kassabian,
age
10,
Nigeria
 ...
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This note was uploaded on 11/15/2011 for the course PUBPOL 481 taught by Professor Duderstadt during the Winter '11 term at University of Michigan.

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