Example-forecasting

Example-forecasting - 0.59 0.77 forecast for week 13: 15.74...

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Example - Forecasting Day Price 5-day moving average Error (Error)^2 Absolute error 1 14.45 2 15.75 3 16.45 4 17.4 5 17.32 6 15.96 16.27 -0.31 0.10 0.31 7 16.45 16.58 -0.13 0.02 0.13 8 15.6 16.72 -1.12 1.25 1.12 9 15.09 16.55 -1.46 2.12 1.46 10 16.42 16.08 0.34 0.11 0.34 11 16.21 15.90 0.31 0.09 0.31 12 15.22 15.95 -0.73 0.54 0.73 forecast for week 13: 15.71 MSE= 0.60 MAD= 0.63
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Weighted moving average, 4-day periods, weights: .1, .2, .3, .4 (.1 is for the 4th period back) Day Price 4-day weigh. Mov. average Error Error^2 Abs. error 1 14.45 2 15.75 3 16.45 4 17.4 5 17.32 16.49 0.83 0.69 0.83 6 15.96 17.01 -1.05 1.11 1.05 7 16.45 16.71 -0.26 0.07 0.26 8 15.6 16.57 -0.97 0.94 0.97 9 15.09 16.10 -1.01 1.02 1.01 10 16.42 15.60 0.82 0.67 0.82 11 16.21 15.86 0.35 0.12 0.35 12 15.22 15.99 -0.77
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Unformatted text preview: 0.59 0.77 forecast for week 13: 15.74 MSE= 0.65 MAD= 0.76 Exponential smoothing, alpha=.7 F(t+1)=alpha*Y(t)+(1-alpha)*F(t) Day Price Y Forecast F error error^2 Absolute error 1 14.45 2 15.75 14.45 1.30 1.69 1.30 3 16.45 15.36 1.09 1.19 1.09 4 17.4 16.12 1.28 1.63 1.28 5 17.32 17.02 0.30 0.09 0.30 6 15.96 17.23-1.27 1.61 1.27 7 16.45 16.34 0.11 0.01 0.11 8 15.6 16.42-0.82 0.67 0.82 9 15.09 15.85-0.76 0.57 0.76 10 16.42 15.32 1.10 1.22 1.10 11 16.21 16.09 0.12 0.01 0.12 12 15.22 16.17-0.95 0.91 0.95 forecast for week 13: 15.51 MSE= 0.87 MAD= 0.83...
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Example-forecasting - 0.59 0.77 forecast for week 13: 15.74...

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